Karim Guerfi vs. Lee McGregor betting odds and preview

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Danny Howard

January 12th, 2021

The undefeated Lee McGregor (9-0) looks to build on his resume at the expense of Karim Guerfi (29-4) on Friday, Jan. 22. We have the inside look on this intriguing bantamweight clash.

Lightning Lee to strike fast

McGregor is taking a step up here, especially considering the gap of experience and class between he and Guerfi. Guerfi is no killer, but he’s been around long enough to not be surprised with what a young prospect will bring to the table. The Frenchman is active and light on his feet, but also light on power. McGregor has shown flashes of power, and that might work to his favor if he can close the distance against his opponent.

Guerfi’s experience may seem like a boon to his chances, but his levels of conquests don’t put him that much further ahead than McGregor. The Italian native has been stopped twice against contemporary opponents and his wins have come from various club fighters across Europe. Experience is only an advantage when there is evidence of success, and Guerfi’s experience comes from the fact that he’s fought more opponents, not tougher ones.

Guerfi vs. McGregor tale of the tape

Karim Guerfi-----Lee McGregor
29-4 (9 KO)
9-0 (7 KO)
4-1 (2 KO)
Last 5 Fights
5-0 (3 KO)
Key Intangibles
Punching power

Can Guerfi stink it out?

There are very few scenarios where the incumbent can upset his young challenger. McGregor has all the tools he needs to blow Guerfi out of the water, but a lot of that will have to do with Guerfi’s plan to neutralize his speed and blunt his punching power. That plan would involve an unsightly amount of clinches and in-fighting, which is his only avenue of victory. Should Guerfi stifle McGregor with a punch-and-clutch style, he might frustrate McGregor into expending more energy than he would like.

Then again, he’ll need to take a risk just to get in to begin with. There’s a good chance that he’ll try this plan to some effectiveness early on, but McGregor’s speed is enough to avoid falling into such an awful trap. Even if they are constantly on the inside, McGregor’s hand speed and power will ensure he’s still scoring points.

McGregor will close the show inside the distance

McGregor won't have much trouble finding his range and getting to Guerfi. Expect the undefeated prospect to notch a win after putting Guerfi down around the sixth, with the follow up barrage sealing the deal and ending the fight.

Boxing pick: McGregor