The Rematch - GGG vs. Canelo Alvarez

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TwinSpires Staff

September 13th, 2018

by Alistair Bull
Most observers felt Gennady Golovkin had the better of the fight against Canelo Alvarez a year ago, which ended up as a draw. This weekend, Golovkin looks to be good value to get the result in his favor in their rematch, where Golovkin’s three middleweight titles will be on the line. In the first fight on September 16 last year, one judge scored the fight 115-113 to Golovkin and a second had it 114-114, but a third judge found it in favor of Alvarez 118-110, a score which a number of writers found difficult to understand.
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The iconic pair were due to fight again in May this year, but it was called off after Canelo Alvarez was banned for six months following a positive drug test to clenbuterol. The 28-year-old Mexican, who said the positive test arose from eating contaminated beef, had his suspension end in August. This will be his first fight since the draw against Golovkin last year.

"Both fighters have minor question marks over them: Golovkin his age, Alvarez his lack of recent fighting."

Golovkin, a 36-year-old from Kazakhstan who is also known as “GGG” or “Triple G”, is undefeated in 39 professional fights, the only blot on his record being the controversial draw last year. Since that fight he has been in the ring again, knocking out Vanes Martirosyan in the second round of a title defense in California in May.

Both fighters have minor question marks over them: Golovkin his age, Alvarez his lack of recent fighting. But they should both be ready, and highly motivated.

Through his career, Golovkin has proved impossible to knock down, and despite Alvarez’s punching power, Golovkin should have the ability to stay on his feet. And if that happens, it’s likely his boxing skills will see him through.

Golovkin has stayed steady as the -170 favorite for the fight, and given his record, his fitness, and the way the first fight went, those seem to be good odds. Alvarez has floated between +125 and +130.

You can also wager on the number of rounds the fight will last, with -260 odds available on the fight going over 11 ½ rounds and +185 for it going under that amount. Given the odds and the fact Alvarez hasn’t fought for a year, the “under” looks tempting, but considering neither fighter has suffered a knockout loss, the “over” is definitely the safer bet.

PREDICTION: Golovkin to win over Canelo Alvarez  Prop Bick - Fight to last over 11 ½ rounds (-240)