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Arkansas vs. Baylor: The best betting props for the Elite Eight

Profile Picture: Dan Halverson

March 28th, 2021

Amidst the udder unpredictability of March Madness, the South Region bracket has held together mostly true to form, with No. 1-seed Baylor set to play No. 3-seed Arkansas in the Elite Eight on Monday.

Let’s take a look at five plays to make heading into this enticing matchup.

Tue, March 30 2021, 1:57 AM

Baylor

Moneyline

-385

Spread

-7.5

Total

O 149

Arkansas

Moneyline

+285

Spread

+7.5

Total

U 149

Game Total Under 147

Arkansas stayed well below the posted total in its last outing against Oral Roberts. Now the Razorbacks must take on a defense that is light years ahead of the Golden Eagles, as Baylor is 13 points better per 100 possessions than ORU.

The Bears have top-tier athletes at every position, and play excellent man-to-man defense. On the other side of the court, Baylor had an excellent offense for most of its season, but the Bears have yet to recapture their lights-out form after an extended pause in play due to COVID-19 issues. Take the Under.

Baylor Wins by 7-9 Points (+600) 

The line for this game is Baylor -7.5, and we’ve reached the point in the season where two well-established major conference teams like Baylor and Arkansas have plenty of data to draw upon to establish the spread.

Lines during the latter stages of March Madness tend to sharpen up, so take the appealing +600 odds here while they're still available.

Halftime/Full Time Outcome: Baylor/Baylor (-160)

Baylor is -230 to win the first half, and -385 to win the game. Oddsmakers think Baylor is the stronger team and will likely pull off a wire-to-wire victory.

Arkansas got off to a slow start against Oral Roberts, falling behind early and needing a comeback to advance. Against a much tougher Baylor team, they will be unable to make such a comeback, and -160 is a better price than the -230 on Baylor first half if you think the Bears will not surrender any lead they build.

While the two-team parlay odds of -230 and -350 are much higher than the return on this -160 bet, you would never be able to parlay such highly correlated lines, and this gives you a better price on a dominant Baylor win than some of the other options available.

Baylor Team Total - Under 78.5

If Baylor wins this game, it will be because of the strength of its defense. The Bears failed to break this number of 78.5 against Villanova, Wisconsin, and only by a half-point against No. 16-seed Hartford.

It seems like the only way this goes over is if Baylor’s MaCio Teague has an above-average game and makes a significant number of threes, but teams are struggling to shoot well from deep this tournament.

Three-Way End of second Half Line: Baylor (-305)

The Baylor moneyline is -385, and yet just -305 to win the three-way line at the end of the second half. Paying 80 cents less on the improbable event of a tie seems like the wiser choice for what is effectively a moneyline bet on a good-sized favorite.

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