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Baylor vs. Gonzaga: The best bets for the NCAA National Championship Game

Profile Picture: Dan Halverson

April 5th, 2021

What a shot by Jalen Suggs! Two days after an unforgettable Final Four, we now get the national March Madness showdown everyone has been clamoring for as No. 1 Gonzaga takes on No. 1 Baylor.

Let’s take a look at the five best betting props for the 2021 NCAA National Championship Game.

Tue, April 6 2021, 1:00 AM

Gonzaga

Moneyline

-225

Spread

-4.5

Total

O 159.5

Baylor

Moneyline

+165

Spread

+4.5

Total

U 159.5

Final Score Under 159.5

Gonzaga is an offensive juggernaut and Baylor appears to be hitting its stride as well, but this is the national championship game and both defenses are elite. Baylor has multiple players that can defend multiple positions, led by Jared Butler who can be a menace to Gonzaga’s springy guards.

Both teams have tried to play with pace in the tournament, but now that they face each other I expect Baylor to slow the tempo and keep this game below the projected total. The average bettor prefers to bet the Over, and in a high-profile game like this one the line feels shaded about four points too high. Throw in championship-game nerves and the Under has an excellent chance of hitting.

Gonzaga to Win by 3-6 (+425)

We have reached the point in the season between two well-known teams when oddsmakers have a significant amount of data from which to formulate a sharp game line. The line on this game is Gonzaga -4.5, and it's perfectly reasonable to think the outcome of that spread will be in question coming into the final minute.

If you want to bet on what should be a hotly-contested game and get better than +400 odds, this is a fun play that has an excellent chance of cashing.

Drew Timme Under 21.5 Points

Drew Timme is the favorite to win the tournament's Most Outstanding Player honors. He's crafty, reliable, and carried Gonzaga to the first six points through the start of overtime against UCLA.

But against a Baylor team that has great athleticism, this is a lot of points for Timme to get to. Baylor did a nice job shutting down interior scoring from Arkansas and Houston big men, and will presumably force Gonzaga to beat them with outside shooting as well. Expect Timme to be confronted with swarming hands any time he catches the ball deep in the post.

Andrew Nembhard Over 9.5 Points

Florida transfer Andrew Nembhard is seeing a lot of minutes in this tournament, getting at least 36 in each of the last four games. As a result, he has scored more than 9.5 points in two of those four games.

Nembhard gets considerably less attention than teammates Joel Ayayi and Jalen Suggs, but he's a former five-star recruit who has averaged 9.2 points per game this season and can carry the offense when needed.

Baylor First Half Moneyline (+140)

The first half result is a higher variance market than the full game itself, and Baylor at +140 on the moneyline looks to have some value.

If Gonzaga has any kind of hangover after its emotional victory, and Baylor comes out as hot as it was against Houston, this will be a nice wager to get plus odds on.

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