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Baylor vs. Texas: NCAA betting odds, preview, and pick

Profile Picture: Dan Halverson

Dan Halverson

February 28th, 2022

A huge matchup will take place in the Lone Star State tonight when the No. 10 Baylor Bears head to Austin to take on the No. 20 Texas Longhorns.

Baylor is 24-5 overall, and at 12-4 in Big 12 play sits just a half-game behind the Kansas Jayhawks. Texas, meanwhile, is 21-8 overall and 10-6 in conference play, good enough for fourth.

This game will have major implications on both conference and national tournament seeding, so let’s dive in and break down the matchup.

Tue, March 1 2022, 2:00 AM

Texas

Moneyline

-106

Spread

+1

Total

O 134.5

Baylor

Moneyline

-115

Spread

-1

Total

U 134.5

How good is Texas' offense?

Texas is playing its final game in the Frank Erwin Center before it's demolished, and the home crowd will be hoping for plenty of fireworks to send it off in style.

The Longhorns have had their best stretch recently, winning five of their last seven games with the only defeats coming against Baylor and Texas Tech. That stretch pushed them to 14th in KenPom’s efficiency rankings, but it's their defense that has carried the flag. Texas is still just 27th in offensive efficiency with a 44.9% shooting percentage.

Minnesota transfer guard Marcus Carr is second on the team in points and leads the Longhorns in assists, but I’ve never been a fan of his style of play. He dribbles too much and should accumulate more assists as the team’s primary ball handler.

In their first matchup against the Bears, the Longhorns managed only 64 points in a 80-63 defeat. The Bears' defense was impressive despite losing forward Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatcoua to injury during the game. The leading Longhorns points-scorer was Andrew Jones with 11 points, and no starter managed double-digits. The team shot just 32.8% from the field.

If Texas is going to close out its longtime arena with a victory, the offense will need to find a way to significantly improve its efficiency and shot-making.

Baylor vs. Texas Betting Trends

  • Baylor is 13-4-1 against the spread in its last 18 games following a straight-up win
  • Baylor is 49-24-2 against the spread in its last 75 games vs. a team with a winning home record
  • The favorite is 4-0 against the spread in the last four matchups between these teams
  • The road team is 10-4 against the spread in the last 14 games between these teams
  • Texas is 1-5 against the spread in its last six outings following a straight-up win

Baylor will show its class

Baylor dominated this matchup in the first game between these teams and has every notable advantage on paper for the rematch.

The Bears are also getting healthier in the home stretch, with guard Adam Flagler back on the court. Baylor is playing on a shorter bench as it focuses on playing to its highest level, and this game is very meaningful to players that will always have a chip on their shoulder when facing off against Texas.

Baylor is the better team and will come away with a hard-fought victory tonight.

Score prediction: Baylor 70, Texas 65

NCAAB pick: Baylor -1

Baylor vs. Texas pick powered by The Quant Edge

Our predictive engine is calling for Texas to win and cover the spread.

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