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Florida State vs. Michigan: The best Sweet 16 betting props

Profile Picture: Robert Criscola

March 28th, 2021

After a thrilling first four games on Saturday, the Sweet 16 rolls on with another four-pack of games on Sunday! The second matchup of the day pits the four-seed Florida State Seminoles against the one-seed Michigan Wolverines (5:00 p.m. ET, CBS) for the right to move on to the Elite 8.

Based on the point spread, this appears to be the most evenly-matched tilt of the entire round. Let’s dive into the available prop bets for this game and see where there might be an edge to be found.

Sun, March 28 2021, 9:00 PM

Michigan

Moneyline

-134

Spread

-2

Total

O 143.5

Florida State

Moneyline

+110

Spread

+2

Total

U 143.5

Total Points by Michigan (Over/Under 72.5)

Though the Wolverines have averaged 84 points in their first two NCAA Tournament games, it feels like they may not even approach that number on Sunday against the Seminoles.

Florida State presents a far different challenge on defense than 16-seed Texas Southern or even eight-seed LSU, who played in an uptempo SEC. The Seminoles are a modest 135th in points allowed per game this season (68.9), but they’ve stepped up big time during March Madness. Leonard Hamilton’s squad surrendered just 54 points to 13-seed UNC-Greensboro in the Round of 64 before limiting a solid five-seed Colorado Buffaloes team to 53 points last time out.

Michigan is not nearly as dynamic a unit without senior forward Isaiah Livers, who remains “out indefinitely” with a foot injury, per head coach Juwan Howard.

NCAA Pick: Under


Total Points by Florida State (Over/Under 70.5)

Bettors shouldn’t expect the Seminoles to light up the scoreboard against the Wolverines in the Sweet 16.

Florida State has averaged a modest 70.4 points per game over their last five tilts. Restrict the data to just their first two March Madness outings, and their points per game average drops to 67.5.

Michigan’s defense can frustrate their opponents, as they limit opposing shooters to 39.3% from the floor, 13th in the country. They’re also 29th in the nation in rebounding, meaning the Seminoles will be hard-pressed to find second chance opportunities.

NCAA Pick: Under


First half (3-way)

Even if you’re backing Michigan in this one, don’t be stunned if they’re down a bit when the game hits halftime at Bankers Life Fieldhouse.

Florida State is 16th in the country in points per first half (38.1), while the Wolverines are 43rd (36.5). The Seminoles allow just 29.7 points per first half – 35th in the nation – while Michigan surrenders 31.3, 74th in the country.

NCAA Pick: Florida State +108

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