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LSU vs. Arkansas: NCAA betting odds, preview, and pick

Profile Picture: Ashley Anderson

March 11th, 2022

The LSU Tigers will look for payback against the No. 15 Arkansas Razorbacks when the two meet in the quarterfinal of the SEC Tournament, set for tipoff Friday, 2:30 p.m. ET, in Tampa.

Fri, March 11 2022, 7:30 PM

Arkansas

Moneyline

-134

Spread

-2

Total

O 139.5

LSU

Moneyline

+110

Spread

+2

Total

U 139.5

Arkansas comes in fresh against LSU

The No. 4 seed in the SEC Tournament, Arkansas (24-7) will come off a bye and play its first game since last Saturday, when the Razorbacks narrowly lost on the road, 78-74, to No. 9 Tennessee in their regular-season finale.

Now Arkansas will meet the most recent team it defeated, LSU (22-10). Their second meeting of the season saw the Tigers nearly upset Arkansas at home, but a pair of free throws by guard JD Notae sealed a 77-76 win.

The SEC's second leading scorer (18.9 points per game) finished with just 12 points and turned the ball over four times, but came up clutch at the charity stripe. He also finished with seven rebounds and five assists.

The Tigers won the war on the glass 43-34 last time out, but shot just 36.1% from the field.

In the first meeting between LSU and Arkansas in January, the Razorbacks were the better rebounding team, but committed 19 turnovers. Another poor shooting night from the Tigers helped Arkansas secure a 65-58 victory, as LSU hit 38.2% from the field and just 64.7% from the free-throw line in the defeat in Baton Rouge.

LSU and Arkansas betting trends

  • LSU is 4-1 ATS in its last five games as an underdog
  • LSU is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games versus teams with a winning straight-up record
  • Arkansas is 8-1-1 ATS in its last 10 games versus teams with a winning straight-up record
  • Arkansas is 7-1-1 ATS in its last nine games as a favorite
  • The Over is 10-3 in LSU's last 13 overall
  • The Over is 4-0 in Arkansas' last four overall

Arkansas will wear down LSU in second half

While the Tigers played the Hogs much closer late in the season, Arkansas has the advantage of entering the SEC Tournament fresh.

On Thursday, LSU downed 12th-seeded Missouri, 76-68, but let Mizzou put up 45 points in the second half, which marked the seventh time in nine games that an LSU opponent has scored more than 40 points after halftime.

A strong showing in the first half kept LSU safe, as the Tigers led by as many as 25 points before the break. Their defense stifled Missouri and forced 24 turnovers, which LSU turned into 29 points.

However, LSU had turnover issues of its own and gave the ball away 11 times in the second half to open the door for a Missouri comeback.

A similar second-half meltdown could come against a well-rested Missouri team, which has had plenty of time to prepare for a rival who nearly snapped the Razorbacks' eight-game winning streak at home last time out.

Arkansas may be without guard Au'Diese Toney, who is listed as a game-time decision. The team's second-leading rebounder scored 18 points and grabbed four rebounds in the most recent meeting with LSU but injured his ankle in the matchup, which kept him sidelined in the loss to Tennessee.

Should Toney make his return, Arkansas should have this one in the bag. But even without him in the lineup, the Hogs will be hungry enough to get back on the winning side and will get the job done in the second half against the Tigers.

Score prediction: Arkansas 74, LSU 68

NCAAB pick: Over 139.5

LSU vs. Arkansas Pick powered by The Quant Edge

Our predictive engine is calling for Arkansas to win outright and for the score to go Over the projected total.

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