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LSU vs. Arkansas: NCAA betting odds, preview, and pick

Profile Picture: Jason Ence

Jason Ence

March 2nd, 2022

Two fierce SEC rivals will square off on Wednesday night when the No. 14 Arkansas Razorbacks host the LSU Tigers.

Let's dig into the matchup, beginning with the latest betting odds available.

Thu, March 3 2022, 2:00 AM

Arkansas

Moneyline

-250

Spread

-5.5

Total

O 142.5

LSU

Moneyline

+200

Spread

+5.5

Total

U 142.5

LSU hoping healthy roster fixes road woes

After starting the season with a 15-1 record, LSU has seen things come crashing down to Earth during SEC play. Injuries have played a big role in their struggles, which has seen them go 4-8 since then, starting with a run where they won just one of seven games. That said, the Tigers still rank 16th in the NET and 24th in the RPI, and a win over Arkansas would be huge for their seeding.

Currently sitting in the middle of the SEC standings, the Tigers could finish anywhere between fifth and 10th depending on how their final two games play out. They are coming off a dominant 20-point win over lowly Missouri, in which they used a 22-8 run to blow the game wide open.

Xavier Pinson had his best week in a long time, scoring 26 points in a loss to Kentucky before scoring 10 against Missouri. He is shooting just 38% from the floor this season and the Tigers need that number to improve, along with his 25% rate from outside the arc. Darius Days is averaging 13.0 points and 7.7 rebounds per game, and will need to crash the glass for an LSU team that ranks 33rd in offensive rebounding.

LSU struggles to score at times, and they will need Tari Eason to continue to play as well as he did against Missouri, when he scored 18 points off the bench. They also will need their defense to cause problems for Arkansas, with Eric Gains’ 2.2 steals per game pacing a team that leads the nation in steals.

Razorbacks flying high right now

Arkansas started the SEC season with a 1-3 record, but a seven-point win at LSU spurred an outstanding run in which they have won 11 of 12 games in conference play. They forced 17 turnovers in that game, and beat LSU on the offensive glass.

Big man Jaylin Williams has been a huge reason for that push, averaging 14.5 points and nearly 11 rebounds during that stretch. In their huge two-point win over Kentucky on the weekend, he scored 16 points, including 10 straight in the second half, while grabbing 12 boards.

JD Notae was the player of the game, dropping 18 points in the first half en route to a 30-point, eight assist performance. He scored 22 points in the previous game against Florida, and his 19.1 points per game is second-best in the conference. He also averages more than two steals per game, helping the Hogs get out in transition early and often.

Arkansas has one major weakness, and that is their 3-point shooting. The Hogs currently rank 305th in the nation in shooting percentage beyond the arc, but it has not hindered them thus far. Their deep rotation allows them to attack the rim relentlessly and second-chance opportunities make up for their poor shooting woes.

Tigers vs. Razorbacks Betting Trends

  • The Tigers are 4-2 ATS in their last six games
  • The Over is 7-3 in LSU’s last 10 games
  • LSU is 1-6 SU in its last seven road games
  • Arkansas is 9-0-1 ATS in its last 10 games
  • The Over is 6-3 in the last nine meetings between these two teams
  • Arkansas is 8-3 SU at home in its last 11 games vs. LSU

Hogs won’t fall at Bud Walton Arena

Arkansas is 16-1 at Bud Walton this year, and has recorded home wins over Kentucky, Tennessee, and Auburn in the past four weeks. The Razorbacks' home fans are frenzied and rambunctious, and their antics have clearly gotten into the heads of opposing players.

The Tigers, meanwhile, have been atrocious on the road this season, having won just once in their last seven away from home. Furthermore, they have covered the spread just twice in their last seven visits to their rivals.

LSU’s defense thrives on half-court pressure forcing turnovers, and limiting the ability of other teams to get open looks from the outside. Neither of those things will bother an Arkansas team crashes the glass with ferocity and will look to push the tempo from the opening tip.

Arkansas is one of the hottest teams in the nation right now, and I do not see the Tigers doing what so many others failed to do. The home fans will be calling the Hogs on Wednesday night as Arkansas rolls to a convincing win and locks up a top-two seed in the conference tournament.

Score prediction: Arkansas 73, LSU 65

NCAAB PICK: ARKANSAS -5.5

LSU vs. Arkansas pick powered by The Quant Edge

Our predictive engine is calling for Arkansas to win outright and LSU to cover.

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