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Oregon State vs. Arizona: NCAA betting odds, preview, and pick

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Dan Halverson

February 17th, 2022

It's a battle of first vs. worst tonight in Tucson when the Pac-12-leading Arizona Wildcats host the cellar-dwelling Oregon State Beavers.

The Wildcats are 22-2 overall and 12-1 in conference play, and have climbed to third in the AP Top 25 rankings. The Beavers, meanwhile, are a disastrous 3-20 overall and 1-12 in conference play. They are on a 10-game losing streak and have only stayed within single digits in two of those losses.

Let's dig into tonight's matchup, beginning with the latest betting odds available.

Fri, February 18 2022, 12:30 AM

Arizona

Spread

-24

Total

O 152.5

Oregon State

Spread

+24

Total

U 152.5

Wildcats and Beavers are horribly mismatched

This game has all the makings of a total blowout.

In the first game between these teams early in the season, Arizona won 90-65 in Corvallis. Since then, the teams have only moved increasingly in different directions as Arizona’s sophomore guard Bennedict Mathurin has elevated his play to potential conference player of the year levels and has helped guide the Wildcats to a Top 5 national ranking.

Arizona is second in KenPom’s efficiency rankings with a top 10 offense and defense, making them a well-rounded group. They are also top 10 in tempo, which is in direct opposition to the Beavers’ strategy to slow things down with their 203rd ranked tempo.

Mathurin is the star for the Wildcats with his 17.0 points per game, but the Wildcats also boast excellent rebounding with their fifth-ranked rebounding percentage. Center Christian Koloko leads the team with 7.3 rebounds per game, and will be a handful for the Beavers to contain in the paint.

The Beavers are 355th in the NCAA in defensive rebounding percentage, and with little size in the interior, they are likely in for a very long night against an Arizona team that has eight players averaging at least three rebounds per game.

Oregon State vs. Arizona Betting Trends

  • Arizona is 5-0 ATS in its last five Thursday games
  • Arizona is 4-1 ATS in its last five games
  • Oregon State is 2-14 ATS in its last 16 games following an ATS loss
  • The Under is 5-0 in Arizona’s last five home games
  • The Under is 9-0 in Arizona’s last nine Thursday games

The Backdoor Won’t Be Open

In a game with this big of a spread, it is pretty obvious that Arizona is going to win handily. The Wildcats have a massive advantage in multiple areas on the court and should jump out to a big lead considering the direction both teams have gone this season, and the rest Arizona has received recently leading up to this contest.

The question is whether Oregon State can slow the game down enough to keep this within 24 points, and if after obtaining a big lead Arizona softens up enough to let the Beavers come back through the backdoor to get inside the number.

I don’t foresee either scenario playing out. Arizona will score on the majority of its possessions to secure a big lead, and the Beavers don’t have anywhere close to the firepower to keep up. Arizona has a deep roster and even their scrubs are more talented. Playing at home they’ll continue to overwhelm the overmatched Beavers and put this one to bed early.

Score prediction: Arizona 90, Oregon State 58

NCAA pick: Arizona -24

Oregon State vs. Arizona pick powered by the Quant Edge

Our predictive engine is calling for Arizona to cover the spread and for the game to go Under the projected point total.

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