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Providence vs. Villanova: NCAA betting odds, preview, and pick

Profile Picture: Dan Halverson

Dan Halverson

March 1st, 2022

The Providence Friars travel to Villanova today for a fantastic Big East matchup that will likely decide the regular season conference champion.

No. 9 Providence leads the conference with a 24-3 record and is 14-2 in conference play. No. 11 Villanova, meanwhile, is right on the Friars' heels, sitting at 21-7 overall and 14-4 in conference play.

The first matchup between these teams was a high-scoring affair, with Villanova prevailing 89-84 at Providence. Let’s break down the rematch, beginning with the latest betting odds available.

Tue, March 1 2022, 11:30 PM

Villanova

Moneyline

-530

Spread

-9.5

Total

O 135

Providence

Moneyline

+390

Spread

+9.5

Total

U 135

Villanova has been sharpened by its tough schedule

Villanova and Providence took very different approaches to their non-conference scheduling. Villanova has the 14th most difficult out-of-conference schedule, having faced teams like Purdue, Baylor, UCLA, and Tennessee. They were victorious in only one of those four games, but the tough competition likely strengthened this team in a way that has made them formidable in conference play.

Providence, on the other hand, took a decidedly different approach and has benefited from its soft schedule with a strong record in the win-loss column. Their toughest opponent outside of conference play was Wisconsin, leading to a somewhat inflated perception of the Friars.

Providence is a major underdog in this matchup because their 174th ranked non-conference strength of schedule and 59th overall strength of schedule tells us that they aren’t amongst the nation’s elite despite their top 10 ranking.

Villanova is the toughest team they’ve faced all year, and the Wildcats have already proven they may be out of Providence’s class with their first victory back on Feb. 15.

Providence vs. Villanova Betting Trends

  • Villanova is 7-3-1 against the spread in its last 11 home games vs. a team with a winning record
  • Villanova is 4-1-1 in its last six Tuesday games
  • Providence is 2-7 against the spread in its last nine Tuesday games
  • The favorite is 6-2 against the spread in the last eight meetings between these teams
  • The Over is 5-2 in Villanova’s last seven games

Villanova's Offense is the Difference 

Villanova is fielding one of the most efficient offenses in the nation, coming in seventh overall. They put up 89 points against the Friars in the last matchup between these two teams, and have won five of their last six games.

Collin Gillespie leads the team with 16.6 points per game, but three players average double digits and Jay Wright has once again gone with his traditional short bench to produce optimal results.

Every single player in the rotation has a field goal percentage above 40%, a consistency that forces defenses to guard honestly and Villanova to play to the hot hand against their opponent’s weakness.

Villanova is hitting its stride as we approach the postseason, and surely has every intention of making an emphatic statement in its pursuit of the conference title.

Score prediction: Villanova 77, Providence 66

NCAAB pick: Villanova -9.5

Providence vs. Villanova pick powered by The Quant Edge

Our predictive engine is calling for Villanova to win and cover the spread.

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