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The best NCAA upset picks for March 4

Profile Picture: Dan Halverson

Dan Halverson

March 4th, 2022

Our last Friday night of the college basketball regular season is here.

This is also my final article with The TwinSpires Edge. After nearly three years on the team and a lot of winning picks submitted, I want to thank everyone that has read my articles as well as everyone on the TwinSpires team for giving me this wonderfully fun opportunity. Life is too short to not enjoy sports.

Now let’s try to send things off with some nice upset winners!

Richmond (+3.5) vs. St. Bonaventure

Sat, March 5 2022, 12:00 AM

St. Bonaventure

Moneyline

-175

Spread

-3.5

Total

O 138

Richmond

Moneyline

+140

Spread

+3.5

Total

U 138

The home team Bonnies are favored by 3.5 in this game, but these teams look really close to each other, so let’s take the underdog.

Richmond is 19-11 straight-up and 7-4 on the road, while St. Bonaventure is 19-8 with a strong home record of 12-2. Richmond is just a few spots behind St. Bonaventure in KenPom’s efficiency rankings, and both teams run a slow pace.

The Bonnies, however, have been a significant benefactor of good luck, sitting 17th in KenPom’s luck rankings, while Richmond is far down the list at 162nd. If you believe that luck reverts to the mean, then a little good luck for Richmond and a little bad luck for St. Bonaventure will see the road team pull off the upset here.

Southern Illinois (+3.5) vs. Drake

Sat, March 5 2022, 2:30 AM

Drake

Moneyline

-177

Spread

-3.5

Total

O 127.5

Southern Illinois

Moneyline

+143

Spread

+3.5

Total

U 127.5

Drake is 22-9 straight-up and 14-3 at home, playing as short favorites against a Southern Illinois team that is just 16-14 and 4-8 on the road.

Looks suspicious to me.

Drake is just 9-19 against the spread this year, a clear indicator that the betting public has been persistently wrong on this group all season. Drake has a strong history and continues to win games, but they’ve done so in ugly fashion.

The first matchup between these teams saw the Salukis lose by only one point, so they know they can play with the Bulldogs and should bring their best here.

San Jose State (+12.5) vs. Utah State

Sat, March 5 2022, 4:00 AM

San José State

Moneyline

+600

Spread

+12.5

Total

O 137.5

Utah State

Moneyline

-1000

Spread

-12.5

Total

U 137.5

San Jose State is just 8-21 under first year coach Tim Miles, but Miles is energetic enough to keep his team competing through the end of the season.

Utah State is just 16-14 and 3-7 on the road. The Aggies are hardly a menacing group away from home, and with the Spartans’ guard-heavy lineup, perhaps some shots will fall in a meaningless final Friday night before conference tournament play begins.

The motivation for Utah State to bring its best here has to be questionable. The home team is 9-1 against the spread in the last 10 matchups between these teams, so let’s first root for the Spartans to keep it close, and then root for them to pull off a shocker.

Buffalo (+2.5) vs. Kent State

Fri, March 4 2022, 11:00 PM

Kent State

Moneyline

-148

Spread

-2.5

Total

O 145.5

Buffalo

Moneyline

+120

Spread

+2.5

Total

U 145.5

This line is moving against the Bulls, and that’s not a good sign, but Buffalo has a better efficiency ranking than the Golden Flashes headed into this matchup.

Buffalo has a significantly better offense, with Kent State shooting just 43.3% from the field, good for 209th in the nation. Buffalo, meanwhile, is in 91st with a 45.4% shooting percentage.

Buffalo is a respectable 9-4 on the road and 10-3-1 against the spread in its last 14 games following a straight-up loss. The Bulls were victorious by 13 points in the first matchup between these teams earlier in the season, and will hopefully run it back with equal success here to close out the campaign.

Happy betting, good luck, and goodnight.

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