Wednesday NCAAM Free Picks

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D.S. Williamson

February 6th, 2019

The Wednesday slate of college basketball tonight serves up some real treats. Let's break down these NCAAM free picks so you can build your bankroll towards a heavy Saturday of action, that we will also preview for you later this week!

[Wednesday, Feb. 6]

Georgetown Hoyas at Providence Friars -5.5 (7:30pm ET)

A month ago, nobody would have believed the Georgetown Hoyas had a shot at garnering a bid to the NCAA Tournament. The Hoyas now have a 14-8 SU record, though. If they can get through the rest of the season losing no more than two more games, and then show up in the Big East Tournament, they’d grab a spot in the Big Dance.

Providence is 13-9 SU. The Friars have a much smaller margin of error than what Georgetown has. Providence also has a worse shot at covering in this matchup than Georgetown despite being the home favorite.

The Friars are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 versus a team with a winning percentage above .600. The road team is 6-2 ATS in the last 8 while Georgetown is a great 12-4 ATS in their last 16 on the road. Hoyas take this.

NCAAM Free Picks: Georgetown +5.5

Creighton Bluejays at #13 Villanova Wildcats -8.5 (8pm ET)

Creighton’s played much better in their last 4 games than they have all season long. The Bluejays are 3-1 SU with the only loss happening to St. John’s. In addition to going 3-1 SU, Creighton’s also gone 3-1 ATS in their last 4.

Villanova’s climbed back into the Top 15, but they should probably be ranked in the Top 10. The Wildcats are 10-0 SU in their last 10. They’ve gone 8-2 ATS in those 10. Trends also put this in Villanova’s favor.

Nova is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 following an ATS win, 6-0 ATS in their last 6 versus the Big East, and 9-1 ATS in their last 10 versus a team with a losing road record. The Bluejays are 1-7 ATS in the last 8 meetings, and 0-5 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Villanova.

The Bluejays will fight, but eventually one of the hottest teams in college basketball will pull away. Villanova should win and cover.

NCAAM Free Picks: Villanova -8.5

#19 Wisconsin Badgers -2.5 at Minnesota Golden Gophers (9pm ET)

Wisconsin is now within 4 games of Big Ten leading Michigan. While Michigan is 20-2 SU, the Badgers are 16-6 SU. Wisconsin’s on a 5-game winning streak that started with a 64-54 victory at home versus Michigan on Jan. 19.

Minnesota won’t be a push over. The Golden Gophers are 3-2 SU in their last 5, but have gone 4-0 ATS in their last 4. Minnesota’s also 4-0 ATS in their last 4 versus a team with a winning SU record, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 versus a team with a winning percentage above .600 and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 following an SU loss.

Those are excellent trends, but Wisconsin’s got a hot trend that trumps all those. The Badgers are an excellent 12-3 ATS in their last 15 road games. It’s difficult to find a college hoops squad that excels on the road the way Wisconsin does.

One thing to note is that the Badgers could be without starting forward Eric Curry. However, 6’ 10” Daniel Oturu’s produced double-doubles in the last couple of Badger games. He also leads the team in field goal percentage with 57.6%. He should fill in nicely if Curry can’t go.

NCAAM Free Picks: Wisconsin -2.5

#22 LSU Tigers vs. #21 Mississippi State Bulldogs -3.0 (9:00pm)

LSU’s college basketball program has had fleeting moments of greatness. When Shaquille O’Neal and Chris Jackson both played for the Tigers way back in the early 1990’s, many thought they’d win the National Championship. Then Ben Simmons played for the Tigers for a season, which gave them national attention but didn't result in any, tangible success on the court.

It’s hard to say if this LSU team is on route to rectifying the program's sordid history, but they’ll definitely have a shot to win and cover against Mississippi State. The Tigers are 4-1 ATS in their away games this season. We’re in February and LSU’s only lost 4 games SU.

LSU’s also 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 versus a rival SEC opponent, 6-2 ATS in their last 8, and 5-2 ATS in their last 7 versus a team with a winning SU record. Great trends, but the Tigers do fail ATS in the head to head matchup.

Still, it’s difficult to look past the team from Baton Rouge. They were awful versus Arkansas in their last, but I think they were looking ahead to Mississippi State. They'll be focused enough for me to back them comfortably tonight.

NCAAM Free Picks: LSU +3.0

California Golden Bears at Oregon Ducks -16.0 (9:30pm)

It’s hard to understand why Fox Sports 1 would broadcast Cal-Oregon on Feb. 6. California’s the worst team in the Pac 12 with a 5-16 SU record. Cal’s also 1-5 ATS on the road this season.

Oregon’s only 13-9 SU, but they should have no trouble easily beating the Golden Bears. Although the Ducks will beat Cal, they won’t cover the spread. The Golden Bears are 8-1 ATS in the last 9 meetings in Oregon and 13-5 ATS in the last 18 meetings overall. Oregon wins and Cal covers in a game you're better off betting and then forgetting.

NCAAB Free Pick: California +16.0

#6 Nevada Wolfpack -13.0 at Colorado State Rams (10:00pm)

The Wolfpack appears to have flipped the switch. Nevada’s played well this entire season, you don’t go 21-1 SU unless you play well, but they’re 3-0 SU and ATS in their last 3 while facing double-digit spreads as the favorite in all 3 games. One of the victories was a stunning 100-60 beat down of Colorado State on Jan. 23.

What’s interesting is that the loss broke a Rams’ 6-game ATS winning streak. After losing to Nevada, Colorado State has bounced back with wins and covers against Fresno State, Boise State, and Air Force.

The Rams get Nevada on their court while there’s no way the Wolf Pack’s not over valued in this. Colorado State should cover as the massive home dog.

NCAAM Free Picks: Colorado State +13.0