Big Week 13 NCAAF Rivalry Games With CFP Implications

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Jay Ginsbach

November 23rd, 2018

There is much more on the line in the Week 13 NCAAF rivalry games than just chasing a College Football Playoff spot. Five teams in the Top-11 of the current CFB Playoff rankings will play in in huge conference games that will send the winner to the Big Ten, Big 12 and Pac-12 Championship.

No. 6 Oklahoma (-1.5) at No. 13 West Virginia

Oklahoma (10-1) opened as a 2-point road favorite but Mountaineers supporters quickly bet the line down to where it is now. West Virginia (8-2) fell out of the CFB Playoff chase with last week’s 45-41 loss at Oklahoma State. But the Mountaineers are 6-2 in Big 12 play and a victory over Oklahoma (7-1) sets up a rematch between these two teams in the Big 12 Championship game Dec. 1 at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, TX. A victory by Oklahoma keeps their CFB Playoff hopes alive and sets up a redemption rematch with Texas (6-2 Big 12) in the Big 12 Championship game if the Longhorns beat Kansas. Another shootout is expected between the Sooners and Mountaineers with the opening the over/under at 80 points.

Oklahoma has one of the most efficient and elite offenses in college football over the past decade averaging 576.3 yards per game and a remarkable 8.6 yards per play. Oklahoma is also on a 4-0 SU/ATS series run over West Virginia winning those contests by 22 points per game. Sooners win the shootout with Murray padding his Heisman campaign, while putting Grier's to rest.

Week 13 NCAAF Rivalry Game Betting Pick– Oklahoma Sooners -1.5

No. 4 Michigan (-4.0) at No. 8 Ohio State  

“The Game” has Michigan as a 4-point road favorite in this huge Week 13 NCAAF rivalry game. Both teams are 10-1 overall and Michigan is 8-0 in Big Ten play while Ohio State is 7-1. The winner is the Big Ten East Champion and plays Northwestern in the Big Ten Championship Game Dec. 1 at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, IN. The loser is also eliminated from the NCAAF College Football Playoff chase. Michigan coach Jim Harbaugh is 0-3 against Ohio State, while coach Urban Meyer is 6-0 in this rivalry during his tenure in Columbus. Ohio State has also won 13 of the last 14 in this series, and the Wolverines haven’t won in Columbus since 2000.

Against 6 common opponents, Michigan is 4-2 ATS and has out-scored them by 29 points per game and out-gained them by 241 yards per game. Ohio State is 2-4 ATS and +17 points per game and +134 yards per game. Michigan has the No. 1 defense is the country allowing just 234.8 yards per game and 3.8 yards per play vs. FBS foes. The Wolverines will move the ball on the Buckeye’s deficient defense that just allowed Maryland to rack up 536 yards. Michigan puts an end to Ohio State's dominance in this heated series (OSU 9-1 SU against Michigan in last 10), while also slamming the final nail in to the coffin of the Buckeyes' CFP aspirations.

Week 13 NCAAF Rivalry Game Betting Pick– Michigan Wolverines -4.0

No. 16 Washington at No. 9 Washington State (-2.5)

Another big rivalry game to finish the regular season and the Apple Cup between Washington (8-3/6-2 Pac-12) and Washington State (10-1/7-1) will determine the Pac-12 North champion. Washington State is a 2.5-point home favorite. The winner advances to the Pac-12 Championship game Nov. 30 at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, CA against Utah. Since 2009, Washington is 8-1 over Washington State in the Apple Cup with an average margin of victory of 22 points. But this is Washington State’s best team under coach Mike Leach and the Cougars' best defense under first year offensive coordinator Claeyes, holding opponents to 328.5 yards per game and 4.9 yards per play; nearly equal to rival Washington’s defense 323.6 YPG and 4.7 YPPL. Heisman hopeful Gardner Minshew has passed for 4,325 yards and 36 TDs to lead the nation’s No. 1 passing attack at 388.1 yards per game against FBS opponents. Washington State is a nation-best 10-1 ATS this season, and we’ll ride that money train one more time in this rivalry game and call for Wazzu to win and break the 5-game losing streak against Washington.

Week 13 NCAAF Rivalry Game Betting Pick - Washington State Cougars -2.5

Fairway Jay is a professional handicapper based out of Las Vegas. He focuses primarily on the four majors along with college football and college basketball. You can follow him on Twitter @FairwayJay.