College Football Week 11 Picks for Key ACC Matchups

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TwinSpires Staff

November 7th, 2018

Two College Football Week 11 ACC battles and a Mountain West Conference throwdown happen on Thursday and Friday this week. In the Atlantic Coast Conference, Wake Forest heads to North Carolina to take on the NC State Wolfpack on Nov. 8 while on Nov. 9, the Syracuse Orange host the Louisville Cardinals as a 3-TD favorite.

Going back to Wake at NC State, the Wolfpack finally stopped the bleeding after two straight losses with an impressive 47-28 victory over Florida State in their last effort. The Wolfpack will attempt to keep it going versus a Wake Forest squad that heads into Week 11 off a loss.

The team that beat the Demon Deacons, Syracuse, shows up as a massive favorite over Louisville on Friday. After back-to-back losses to Clemson and Pittsburgh, the Orange have been on a great streak, winning their last 3 outings.

The Mountain West Conference game features Boise State hosting ranked Fresno State in a strange position, as an underdog against the spread. Boise State’s been a double-digit favorite in every home game this season.

Check out analysis for the three College Football Week 11 games on Thursday, Nov. 8 and Friday, Nov. 9.

Thursday, Nov. 8

Wake Forest Demon Deacons at NC State Wolfpack -17

Neither one of these squads is in great form. The Demon Deacons are an awful 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games overall, 1-5 ATS in their last 6 conference games, and 0-6 ATS versus a team with a winning record. The Wolfpack is 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 ACC games.

The trends do diverge in the head-to-head matchup. The favorite in the rivalry is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings while the home team is 18-4 ATS in the last 22 meetings. Wake has gone 0-5 ATS in the last 5 at North Carolina State. The Wolfpack sure looks like the play to cover on Thursday night.

College Football Week 11 Pick: NC State -17  

Friday, Nov. 9

Louisville Cardinals at #24 Syracuse Orange -21

The two blemishes on Syracuse’s record are road losses. Not only are the Orange 5-0 SU at home, they’re also 3-1-1 ATS in those games. They pushed against Connecticut as a -30 favorite.

I’d check out the Cardinals’ trends, but Louisville’s one of the worst teams in college football. They won’t cover against Syracuse because they’ve only covered in a single game this season, barely overreaching in a 24-28 loss to Florida State as a +5 dog.

We’re talking about a squad in Louisville that could only beat Division II Indiana State 31-7 as a -42 favorite, and Western Kentucky 20-17 as a -23 choice. Since the Western Kentucky game the Cardinals have failed both straight up and against the spread when playing Virginia, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Boston College, Wake Forest, and Clemson.

Syracuse is one of the better teams in the conference. Three touchdowns seems like a lot until we realize opponents average over 40 points against the Cardinals. The Orange roll to an easy win and cover against a huge number.

College Football Week 11 Pick: Syracuse -21  

#23 Fresno State Bulldogs -3 at Boise State Broncos

Fresno State’s lone mishap both straight up and against the spread was versus Minnesota in Week 2. Since the loss, the Bulldogs have gone 7-0 SU and ATS. Boise State could end Fresno State’s dominance, but it’s hard to see that happening.

The Broncos are 1-4 ATS versus a team with a winning record, 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall, and 5-15 ATS in their last 20 at home. Fresno State has gone an awesome 25-4-1 ATS in their last 30 games. They’re also 13-2-1 ATS in their last 16 on the road and 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. I’m backing the Bulldogs.

College Football Week 11 Pick: Fresno State -3