College Football Week 12 Picks - Midweek MAC Action

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D.S. Williamson

November 12th, 2018

The MAC’s in action again this Tuesday and Wednesday and I'm here to deliver some solid College Football Week 12 picks. Western Michigan heads to Ball State to battle the Cardinals on Nov. 13th, then on Wednesday the two best teams in the conference hit the gridiron when Buffalo battles tough Ohio in a pick 'em game and Northern Illinois hosts Miami-Ohio as a pretty heavy favorite. All three games could have an affect on the MAC Championship.

Western Michigan has a small chance of catching Northern Illinois in the West Division. The Broncos need help from Miami-Ohio on Thursday, but if they were to beat Ball State and Miami-Ohio were to upset Northern Illinois, the Broncos and the Huskies would duke it out for the division title next week.

Like Northern Illinois in the West, Buffalo has yet to lock down the East Division crown. With a win over the Bulls, Ohio could force Buffalo to close the door on Bowling Green next week. No matter what happens on Wednesday night, the Bulls will be massive favorites over Bowling Green, but we all know that teams don’t always respond positively when the pressure’s on.

Check out an analysis for the College Football Week 12 games on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Tuesday, Nov. 13

Western Michigan Broncos -7.5 at Ball State Cardinals

The Broncos head into this matchup cold having lost their last couple, 24-51 to Toledo and 14-59 to Ohio. That's the bad news. The good news is that while Western Michigan’s cold, Ball State’s downright freezing having lost 4-of-5 both SU and ATS. Only a couple of trends give us a clue as to how this one might go:  Ball State is 8-20 ATS in their last 28 versus a team with a winning road record, and Western Michigan is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings with this opponent. Those two trends tell me Western Michigan’s the play.

College Football Week 12 Picks: Western Michigan -7.5

 Wednesday, Nov. 14

Buffalo Bulls at Ohio Bobcats -2

Buffalo’s torn through the MAC with a 6-0 SU and ATS record. But, the Bulls face a stiff test on Wednesday against the Ohio Bobcats. Ohio is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 home games and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 following a straight up loss. The game went from a pick 'em to favoring Ohio by 2-points. Right now, most college football handicappers are going the other way, backing the Bulls. If that trend continues Ohio should be a slight home dog by kickoff. I wonder if the trend that shows the home team in this head-to-head going 5-0 ATS in the last 5 has anything to do with the initial line move. It’s certainly the trend that helped me decide. I’m backing the Bobcats

College Football Week 12 Picks: Ohio -2

Miami-Ohio Redhawks at Northern Illinois Huskies -6.5

The Huskies are garnering a lot of action to cover this spread, but the Miami-Ohio Redhawks have an edge based on metrics. Northern Illinois is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 following a straight up win of more than 20 points, 1-5 ATS in their last 6 after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game, and 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games versus a team with a losing road record. Miami-Ohio is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 conference games and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 following an ATS win. The Redhawks are also 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.

Although based on trends, Miami-Ohio should have a shot against the spread, they’re tough to back. Northern Illinois has gone 5-1 ATS in their last 6. The Huskies lone non-cover was in a win over Ohio. I’m closing my eyes to the trends, laying the points, and hoping the Huskies come through.

College Football Week 12 Picks: Northern Illinois -6.5