Fairway Jay's Week 5 NCAAF Free Picks

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TwinSpires Staff

September 27th, 2018

Week 5 NCAAF Free Picks - Teams Rested and Ready for Redemption Off a Bye by Fairway Jay

There are 17 college football teams that have a bye this week, and 11 other teams back in action and playing their 4th game of the season following its bye on Sept. 22. History has shown that teams playing Game 4 off a bye have produced profit in some specific situations so that's who we're focuing on in Week 5 NCAAF free picks

Teams off a bye and playing Game 4 at home off a win in its previous game (prior to bye) are a 60% ATS play on a sample size of more than 140 games. Unfortunately, last year these teams failed in this situation going 0-5 ATS. However, we can strengthen this base situation by adding the motivation of these home teams playing with single-season revenge from a loss to the same opponent last year. Playbook notes that these home teams are 31-13 ATS (70%) in this situation including 28-7 ATS (80%) if playing a conference opponent.

Situational handicapping is just one part of the process, but bye weeks, home field, motivation and rest, including returning some players from injury, add to a team’s positive profile. So does coaching and preparation against an opponent that played last week and may have their own issues with travel or letdown following an emotional win or loss.

Oregon would clearly fall into that category off a devastating and deflating loss last week vs. Stanford in overtime after the Ducks blew a 24-7 lead and another 10-point lead late in the 4th quarter.

Now Oregon travels to Cal (+3), who is undefeated at 3-0 and playing with 45-24 revenge to a loss at Oregon last season. The Bears have one of the most improved defenses in the country through 3 games while beating North Carolina 24-17 laying 7 and upsetting BYU in Provo 21-18 as a 2-point puppy. Cal’s defense allowed 28 points per game last season in head coach Justin Wilcox’ first season in Berkeley after allowing at least 37 PPG each of the previous 3 seasons.

Here are the home teams playing its four game of the season this week off a bye with conference revenge. The Bears, Blazers and Buffaloes fit this positive profile off a win, bye and week of rest, and against a conference opponent looking to even the score from last year’s loss. These are some of my favorite Week 5 NCAAF Free Picks.

Cal (+3) vs Oregon

UAB (-17) vs Charlotte

Colorado (-9.5) vs UCLA (Friday – note both teams off a bye)