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Heisman Trophy Odds Update: Purdy's stock is falling fast

Profile Picture: Jason Ence

September 15th, 2021

Heisman Trophy future odds are beginning to settle a bit as we head into Week 3 of the college football season.

Let’s break down the favorites, who made the biggest moves in Week 2, and what to keep an eye on as we prepare for this weekend’s must-see games!

Heisman Trophy 2021

Sun, December 5 2021, 10:57 AM

Young, Bryce

+125

Corral, Matt

+550

Willis, Malik

+800

Rattler, Spencer

+900

Ridder, Desmond

+1200

Daniels, JT

+1400

Stroud, C.J.

+2000

Brown, Anthony

+2500

Uiagalelei, D.J.

+2500

Verdell, CJ

+3000

Young and Corral remain atop, but Willis is now third

Alabama quarterback Bryce Young continues to lead the pack, with his odds to win the Heisman actually decreasing a bit as he moved from +150 to +125 following a 48-14 victory over Mercer. He threw for 227 yards and three touchdowns in a game the Tide knew they would breeze through.

Meanwhile, the price for second-choice increased a bit, with Ole Miss quarterback Matt Corral seeing a slight uptick to +550 from +500 after the Rebels defeated Austin Peay 54-17. Corral threw five touchdown passes and 281 yards against an FCS opponent, but the improvement of Young’s odds were really the only reason Corral’s price changed.

However, Spencer Rattler has dropped a spot from third to fourth, albeit with the same price as last week, as Liberty quarterback Malik Willis took a massive jump up the list. His price dropped heavily from +2200 to +800 following a solid performance against Troy that saw him gain 247 yards of total offense and score three touchdowns. Willis may see his price drop even more, given Syracuse is the only Power-5 opponent on their schedule in the next seven games.

The two players who also made big jumps up the list were C.J. Stroud and Anthony Brown, the two quarterbacks who turned the Oregon-Ohio State game into a must-watch affair on Saturday. Brown’s price cut in half after leading the Ducks to an upset victory, moving from +5000 to +2500 this week. Meanwhile, Stroud was quite impressive in defeat with 484 yards passing, and his move from +2500 to +2000 sees him sitting just ahead of Brown with the seventh-best odds.

Slovis and Purdy freefall down the list

A 42-28 defeat to Stanford saw USC quarterback Kedon Slovis take a huge drop down the list, falling from eighth-best on the odds as he went from +2500 to +5000. His performance was less than impressive, completing 27 of 42 passes for just 223 yards with a touchdown and an interception, and the defeat led to the firing of head coach Clay Helton. With only three touchdown passes on 78 attempts, Slovis’ Heisman hopes might already be toast.

Meanwhile, Brock Purdy was benched in Iowa State’s 27-17 defeat to rival Iowa, after throwing three interceptions and completing fewer than half of his 27 attempts. Purdy has yet to score a touchdown of any kind this season, a big reason why his odds dipped from +3300 to +5000, and that number might be generous given the schedule ahead.

The only other noticeable drop on the week was JT Daniels of Georgia, who sat out his team's 56-7 victory over UAB with a strained oblique. His price dipped slightly from +1200 to +1400, but with his status unknown for Saturday’s game against South Carolina, that price could go down significantly again next week.

What to keep an eye on

Young’s price could take a dip this week as he faces a serious challenge on the road against Florida on Saturday. If he struggles in The Swamp, you could get much better value on him next week. However, if he plays well, you could see him get close to even money, meaning now might be the time to place your wager.

Meanwhile, Ole Miss takes on a Tulane squad at home that allowed 304 passing yards to Rattler in the opening game, and I like his price to go down after this weekend. That said, after this weekend, Corral will not play again until Oct. 2—when he and Young square off in Tuscaloosa. If you think Ole Miss will win that game, now is the time to pounce on his +550 odds.

For me, the most intriguing number is the +2000 for Stroud. Ohio State is not out of the national title race by any means, but their defense is quite bad. This bodes well for the freshman quarterback, as he will likely need to continue posting video-game numbers and shouldn’t get benched much in the second half of games. Combine that with Ohio State’s schedule featuring just two teams the rest of the way that are currently ranked, and I expect his price to drop quickly and would recommend wagering on Stroud before he moves into the top three.

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