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Iowa vs. Iowa State: NCAAF Week 2 betting odds, preview, and pick

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September 11th, 2021

In-state rivals Iowa and Iowa State will battle for the Cy-Hawk Trophy on Saturday afternoon for the 68th time, as the Hawkeyes visit the Cyclones in a college football top 10 matchup.

Sat, September 11 2021, 8:30 PM

Iowa State

Moneyline

-200

Spread

-4.5

Total

O 46.5

Iowa

Moneyline

+163

Spread

+4.5

Total

U 46.5

Hawkeyes are hoping to record sixth-straight win over rivals

Iowa has defeated their bitter rivals in the last five meetings for the Cy-Hawk Trophy, and last week’s dominant 34-6 victory over No. 17 Indiana saw them register their seventh consecutive victory dating back to last season. Iowa’s defense was outstanding, limiting Hoosiers’ QB Michael Penix Jr. to just 202 yards and intercepting him three times. Two of those interceptions ended up in the hands of CB Riley Moss, as he made a house call each time to put points on the board.

Running back Tyler Goodson will need to have a solid game against a stout Cyclones’ rush defense, but he has averaged 110 yards per game during their win streak. They also need better play from QB Spencer Petras, who completed just 13 of his 27 passes for 145 yards. The defense must find a way to stop the Cyclones’ dominant rushing attack, led by Breece Hall, and force Brock Purdy to beat them with his arm. They should be helped by punter Tory Taylor, as the Aussie product ranked in the top 20 nationally last season with an average of 44.1 yards on 40 punts.

The Hawkeyes’ seven-game win streak has seen them win comfortably against quality teams, with victories over Wisconsin and Penn State. Their average margin of victory has been over 21 points during that run, and while the likelihood of putting that big a beating on their rivals is low, they showed last weekend that they can beat up on ranked teams.

Iowa State is looking to rebound after a poor showing

Last weekend saw the Cyclones lay an egg, defeating Northern Iowa 16-10 in a game that saw them favored by 28.5 points. The offense scored just one touchdown on the day, and was clearly missing star TE Charlie Kolar, who should return to action this week following an ankle injury.

Purdy had a solid game, completing 21 of his 26 passes for 199 yards, but there were few big plays in the passing game with just two completions over 20 yards on the day. WR Xavier Hutchinson had a solid performance, but the Northern Iowa defense doesn't compare to what the Cyclones will face from Iowa. Hall will find it tough to run on an Iowa defense that allowed just 2.5 yards per carry to the Hoosiers last week on 31 attempts.

Iowa State’s defense will come ready to play, with all but one starter returning from last year’s outstanding unit that ranked 10th nationally in yards per carry. They will force Iowa to have to throw downfield, something they struggled to do mightily against Indiana last weekend.

One interesting tidbit about the Cyclones this weekend is that they are abandoning their traditional colors for black-and-white uniforms, which could add a bit of fatigue with temperatures expected to reach the mid-90s on Saturday in Ames.

Hawkeyes and Cyclones Betting Trends

  • The Hawkeyes are 5-0 in the last five Cy-Hawk matchups
  • The Hawkeyes are 4-0 in their last four games at Iowa State
  • The Under is 12-6 in the Hawkeyes’ last 18 games
  • The Cyclones are 4-2 ATS in their last six games
  • The Under is 6-0 in the Cyclones’ last six games

Iowa State's balanced offensive attack is a difference maker

Since taking over at Iowa, Kirk Ferentz is just 2-6 against the spread in road games against ranked opposition. However, the Hawkeyes’ largest defeat in the last 14 Cy-Hawk meetings has been just three points. Iowa came out last weekend ready to go, and took it to a ranked opponent, while the Cyclones struggled to defeat a Northern Iowa squad that went just 3-4 last season against FCS opposition. That said, Iowa State has the more balanced offensive attack, and in a tight game such as this, it is a massive advantage.

Neither of these teams are huge threats to hit big plays downfield, and both will want to rely on their run game. With a fierce rivalry in play, and the crowd behind the Cyclones, I like Iowa State to win this in a very low-scoring clash. Your best wager is the Under 46.5. For a bigger payout, I would take Iowa and the 4.5 points, and combine it with the Under for a solid Same Game Combo return.

Score prediction: Iowa State 21, Iowa 17

NCAAF Week 2 PICKS: UNDER 46.5 (-112); SAME GAME COMBO IOWA +4.5 & UNDER 46.5 (+235)

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