Mountain West Free Picks – Utah State at Boise State Week 13

Profile Picture: Jay Ginsbach

Jay Ginsbach

November 23rd, 2018

As the scores come in Saturday and bettors look for some late games to bet on, the mammoth game in the Mountain West is likely to draw more action. Utah State (10-1) and Boise State (9-2) will play for the Mountain division title in near freezing temperatures, and the winner advances to the Mountain West Championship game Dec. 1 against Fresno State. Utah State (7-0) is undefeated in MWC play while Boise State is 6-1. Based on conference records, the winner of this Mountain division game will host Fresno State in the championship game. Is Boise State worth siding with against a strong Aggies team in Mountain West free picks? Read on to find out!

Utah State at Boise State -3 (67.5) Saturday, Nov. 24 – Albertson’s Stadium, Boise, Idaho 10:15pm ET– ESPN

The Utah State Aggies have won 10-straight games since a close opening week loss at Michigan State, 38-31. The Aggies are also 9-2 ATS, blowing out many opponents while scoring at least 55 points in six games. The Aggies offense averages 488.0 yards per game vs FBS opponents with a solid balanced attack. Boise State is strong again this season and their defense allows 5.4 yards per play when matched up against FBS opponents. But the Broncos have lost to San Diego State at home and had three other close calls including the 24-17 win over Fresno State this month when they trailed 17-3.

The Utah State defense is under-rated as they also lead the country in takeaways with 26, which has helped them to a +13 turnover margin while turning them in to a profitable churner in Mountain West free picks. The Aggies allow just 4.9 yards per play vs FBS opponents, and Utah State also has the better special teams units in this Mountain West match-up. Utah State’s defense will be challenged by Boise State QB Brett Rypien, who became the all-time passing leader in the Mountain West last week with 13,146 passing yards, but the Aggies have the firepower to apply constant pressure on the Broncos.

The blue turf in Boise has been a dominant home field for the Broncos for nearly two decades. In fact, earlier this month, Boise State was a home underdog in a regular season game for the first time since 2001. The Broncos prevailed over Fresno State, but now a better team visits Boise and the Broncos will need to rise up against Utah State’s explosive offense if Boise wants to win their fourth division title in the last five years since the league split into two divisions.

This matchup has gone over the total in six of the last seven meetings, but sharp money may show UNDER 67.5 points with the weather and magnitude of the game, and both defenses are solid. I think the time has come for a newcomer to knock off Boise State. I'll take Utah State plus the points and on the money line to win this mammoth matchup and advance to the Mountain West Championship game.

Week 13 Mountain West Free Picks – Utah State Aggies +3.0 and +130 ML

Fairway Jay is a professional handicapper based out of Las Vegas. He focuses primarily on the four majors along with college football and college basketball. You can follow him on Twitter @FairwayJay.