NCAA Football Week 5 Blowout Games

Profile Picture: TwinSpires Staff

TwinSpires Staff

September 28th, 2018

by Fairway Jay

I play a lot of underdogs, but took a Big Bertha approach to get Miami (-17.5) in Thursday night in blowout fashion 47-10. Now we fire for the flag and a similar score Saturday on the Sooners and another game that fits the profile of a potential NCAA Football Week 5 blowout.

#6 Oklahoma Sooners -23.5 over Baylor Bears Oklahoma (4-0) is a high-ranked hottie at No. 6 in the country, but last week they got caught in a Big 12 sandwich spot and barely pulled out an overtime win over Army 28-21 laying 30 points. Not that would have been a major upset. Oklahoma failed to cover the point spread for the third straight week laying a big number, but don’t count on anything close against the Baylor Bears, who are going to get streamrolled at the point of attack Saturday.

Oklahoma is piling up 500 yards per game and averaging 44 points per game. That includes a pound the ground running attack at 214.0 YPG at 6.2 yards per rush (top-10 in country). Baylor has played a soft early schedule and is still allowing over 5.0 yards per rush including 220 at 8.1 YPR to Abilene Christian. In its toughest game to date, Baylor was beaten at home by Duke 40-27 and allowed the Blue Devils to balance the attack while rushing for 225 yards.

Oklahoma will run over and through the Bears in a Week 5 blowout and, with a very likely 2:1 or greater rushing yards advantage, the Sooners will have a better than 75% chance to cover this big number. The Sooners hung 49 points, 625 yards and 325 rushing on Baylor last year but could not cover the 4 touchdowns. A 4 TD victory margin looks likely in Norman on Saturday.

Appalachian State Mountaineers -25 at South Alabama Jaguars Here’s another weak opponent that is going to get manhandled at the point of attack. South Alabama (1-3) travels for the third time in four weeks, and Appalachian State has the fire power to win and cover its 8th straight game. App State scored 38 points in an opening week overtime loss at Penn State, and has buried its last two opponents by 35+ points to move to 3-0 ATS. The Mountaineers will hold nothing back against an opponent they can pummel at the point of attack and allows nearly 500 yards per game. South Alabama has already allowed Memphis and Oklahoma State to pile up more than 50 points and 560+ yards, and its own running attack is poor (129/game) while their defense is severely deficient and allowing opponents to gouge them on the ground 47 times per game. Only a letdown/lookahead prevents a Mountaineers mauling.