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NCAAF Betting Tips - Tracking The Rush Attack

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TwinSpires Staff

September 8th, 2018

by Fairway Jay
Every week I go through college and pro football boxscores and document rushing statistics. I use point of attack play and rushing guidelines in my weekly pursuit of profit when handicapping, dishing out NCAAF betting tips and determining my point spread prognosis. It’s just one many pieces in my handicapping process, but one I employ when I see a real edge at the point of attack and a team’s potential to out-rush an opponent by margin.

The option attack is a tough and tricky offense to defend. Many teams struggle against it with little time to prepare due of its intricacies and because so few teams see the option offense over the course of a season. Georgia Tech is a team I’ve identified in Week 2 that should run wild over a South Florida defense that allowed 192 rushing yards to FCS Elon last week. The Bulls are going to get stung by the Bees, as South Florida lost many starters and their QB from last year’s 10-2 team. Georgia Tech is the only Power 5 team than employs a full-fledged option offense.

College football teams that outrush their opponent by at least a 2:1 margin in rushing yards cover the point spread approximately 75% of the time, which is one my favorite NCAAF betting tips to lead with. This is a long term proven profit producer for more than a decade. In Week 1, 17 teams out of the initial 45 lined FBS games had a 2-1 or better rushing yards edge, and those teams went 12-5 ATS.

Top teams like Alabama (222-16 rushing yards edge) and Notre Dame (132-58) were SU and ATS winners, while San Diego State (150-50) came up short SU and ATS in a 31-10 loss against Stanford despite shutting down Heiman hopeful Bryce Love and the Stanford offense for the entire first half.

The military academies are known for their option offenses. Teams that are often out-manned in the trenches may employ other styles of offenses or trickery, including spread passing attacks and no-huddle hurry up offense as a different way of attacking a defense by using their own strengths. Army, Navy and Air Force are annually among the top teams in rushing the football, as a vast majority of their plays are rushing the ball out of the option.

Not enough handicappers or recreational bettors understand the power of rushing the football and/or stopping the run, nor do they focus on them when dolling out their own NCAAF Betting Tips . When used properly in contests with potential mismatches or edges in the running game, it can be a powerful tool for not only identifying winning teams in a weekly match-up, but a real profit producer when wagering on the games. You can bet on it.