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NCAAF national championship odds update: Michigan moves up

Profile Picture: Jeremy Balan

September 20th, 2021

It's clear the cream has risen to the top.

Alabama and Georgia aren't going anywhere at the top of the odds board for College Football Playoff National Championship futures, but there is still some intrigue looming with big prices underneath.

NCAAF Championship 2021/2022

Sun, December 5 2021, 10:56 AM

Alabama Crimson Tide

+200

Georgia Bulldogs

+225

Oklahoma Sooners

+800

Oregon Ducks

+1200

Ohio State Buckeyes

+1600

Clemson Tigers

+1800

Penn State Nittany Lions

+3500

Texas A&M Aggies

+4000

UCLA Bruins

+5000

Michigan Wolverines

+6600

Michigan makes a move

After Michigan trounced Northern Illinois, 63-10, the Wolverines moved from +10000 to +6600 to win the national title, the No. 10 spot on the odds board.

But is Michigan a legitimate contender? I need to see some more.

The Wolverines got small a boost in schedule strength Saturday, as Western Michigan (a team they defeated 47-14) upset Pittsburgh, but Michigan still hasn't defeated a quality opponent.

A 31-10 win over Washington two weeks ago should have been an impressive victory, based on preseason rankings (the Huskies were ranked No. 20 to start the season), but it came a week after Washington's 13-7 loss to Montana.

The numbers are impressive, though.

In three games, Michigan has racked up more than a thousand yards and 15 touchdowns on the ground (led by 407 yards and seven scores from Blake Corum), but those games all came at home against inferior opponents.

The Wolverines will get another home game against Rutgers — which is improved but still an 18.5-point underdog — this week.

Wake me up if Michigan brings home a victory from Wisconsin on Oct. 2.

Florida drops off a cliff

This one, I don't understand.

Florida dropped from +5000 to +10000 to win the national title, after the Gators nearly defeated No. 1 Alabama? Florida outplayed the Crimson Tide in the second half Saturday, had all the momentum late, and simply ran out of time.

Florida still has a clear path to the SEC Championship Game, if it can get past Georgia on Oct. 30, and based on its performance against Alabama, that shouldn't be out of the question. The Gators will be heavily favored in every other game this season.

You're telling me Florida has the same chance to win a national title as Ole Miss, Iowa State, Notre Dame, and Arizona State (all at +10000), after a close loss to the country's best team?

Clemson not looking so hot

A couple weeks ago, I told you not to give up on Clemson. After a 14-8 win over Georgia Tech, it might be time to jump ship.

The Tigers dropped from +1400 to +1800 to win the national championship, and they'll likely still cruise through the ACC, but Saturday was not pretty. Georgia Tech outgained Clemson and DJ Uiagalelei just didn't look good — again.

Remember those Northern Illinois Huskies that Michigan crushed this weekend? Georgia Tech lost to Northern Illinois on Sept. 4.

Yikes.

Movers and shakers

The game of the weekend was Penn State's tight win over Auburn, and it was the Nittany Lions' second quality result, after a victory over Wisconsin in the opener.

Penn State has showed more than most teams in the top 10, so the move from +5000 to +3500 to win the national title makes sense. The Nittany Lions will get a breather against Villanova this week, but look out for a showdown at Iowa on Oct. 9. Auburn slipped from +15000 to +25000 after the loss.

One team that has not moved, despite multiple quality performances against ranked opponents, is Fresno State.

The Bulldogs from the Central Valley of California are now ranked No. 22 in the country, after an upset win against UCLA (+5000 to win the national title), and nearly defeated No. 3 Oregon, a week before its upset of Ohio State.

Does any reasonable person think Fresno State will win the CFP National Championship? Of course not. That's not how college football is set up. It's a shame that the Bulldogs don't play in a major conference, because they might deserve an outside shot.

They might be the best team at +300000 you'll ever see.

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