NCAAF Week 12 Shootout Expected Oklahoma State vs West Virginia

Profile Picture: Jay Ginsbach

Jay Ginsbach

November 16th, 2018

An offensive explosion is expected in Oklahoma following the Cowboys' Bedlam battle last week. Oklahoma State hosts a West Virginia team that is tied for first place in the Big 12 and a place in a top-tier bowl game. The No. 9 Mountaineers have a glaring loss on the road to Iowa State on their record which is likely to keep them from making the college football playoff. However, quarterback Will Grier is now the third favorite in the Heisman futures and can keep his own hopes alive by putting together a big effort away from home against a curiously small NCAAF Week 12 spread. Grier is +800 to win the Heisman, well behind Alabama's Tua Tagovailoa (-600) and at pace with Oklahoma's Kyle Murray (+700).

No. 9 West Virginia Mountaineers (8-1) at Oklahoma State Cowboys (5-5) Saturday, November 17th – Boone Pickens Stadium, Stillwater – 3:30pm ET (NBC) NCAAF Week 12 Betting Line: West Virginia -5.5 (73)

This line is fluctuating between -4.5 and -5.5 at the sportsbook and the total has been bet up sharply from 69.5. Here’s a ranked versus unranked matchup where the home standing Oklahoma State Cowboys have a good shot to knock  WVU down the college football playoff poll. That’s if the Cowboys can avoid a letdown and overcome the devastating defeat suffered last week in the Bedlam battle with rival Oklahoma.

Coach Mike Gundy’s Cowboys are just 2-5 in Big 12 play while the Mountaineers are tied at the top at 6-1 with Oklahoma, who West Virginia plays next week for the Big 12 title. That too could have West Virginia thinking ahead, but there is no room for error if West Virginia wants to also have a shot to keep their slim hopes of making the college football playoff alive.

But how does Oklahoma State get off the mat and respond after last week’s loss? So much emotion, as the Cowboys scored a touchdown with a minute to go last week and coach Gundy elected to go for the 2-point conversion and win, but came up short in a 48-47 loss.

The Bedlam game wasn't just emotionally taxing, it was physically draining. Oklahoma accumulated 702 yards of offense against the Cowboys, who piled up 640 yards themselves. The Cowboys defense was also pounded at the point of attack allowing 353 rushing yards on 47 carries last week. QB Taylor Cornelius passed for a career-high 501 yards and 3 touchdowns without an interception in 53 pass attempts. Flying footballs expected again this week, as Cornelius leads the Big 12 with 3,123 passing yards and West Virginia QB Will Grier is just behind with 2,961 passing yards with 31 TD passes and a 69% completion percentage.

Oklahoma State was good enough to beat Texas on this field 38-35 on Oct. 27 while out-gaining the Longhorns with 502 yards. But you saw the following week how letdown games work as Oklahoma State lost on the road at Baylor 35-31 as a 6-point favorite with their huge rivalry game against Oklahoma looming on deck. Even with a full week to recover, it's easy to assume that Oklahoma State is still gassed and gutted following that heartbreaking loss to Oklahoma.

The Mountaineers have been out-gained by 87 yards per game and gone 2-1 SU/ATS winning Big 12 opponents. West Virginia did score a last second touchdown at Texas Nov. 3 to beat the Longhorns and escape Austin with a 42-41 victory. A blowout of TCU last week 47-10 has West Virginia on a 3-0 SU/ATS run and the offense should be able to score plenty of points again this week.

I agree with the rising total move and think that's the play to back. West Virginia isn't totally trustworthy against the spread anyhow.

NCAAF Week 12 Betting Free Pick – OVER 73   

Fairway Jay is a professional handicapper based out of Las Vegas. He focuses primarily on the four majors along with college football and college basketball. You can follow him on Twitter @FairwayJay.