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NCAAF Week 13: Oregon vs. Oregon State odds, preview, and pick

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November 24th, 2020

Intrastate bragging rights are on the line as the No. 9 Oregon Ducks (3-0) visit the Oregon State Beavers (1-2) at Reser Stadium on Friday night (7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN). Will Oregon build on its dominant 11-1 run in this series, or will Oregon State pull off a shocking upset? Here’s our wagering preview.

Sat, November 28 2020, 12:00 AM

Oregon State Beavers

Spread

+14

Moneyline

+360

Total

O 64

Oregon Ducks

Spread

-14

Moneyline

-500

Total

U 64

Oregon seems far superior through three weeks

The Ducks have jumped out to a 3-0 start in 2020, covering against Stanford and Washington State before edging past UCLA, 38-35, last Saturday as 18-point favorites.

The Beavers are fresh off their first victory of the season, a hard-fought 31-27 decision over Cal. They lost to Washington State and Washington prior to that.

The Ducks’ offense is more dynamic

Oregon’s offense is ranked sixth nationally by yards per play (7.7), while Oregon State is a lackluster 67th (5.6) in the same department.

Both programs can run the ball effectively. Running backs CJ Verdell (241 yards on 50 attempts) and Travis Dye (172 yards on 21 attempts) have carried the ball well for the Ducks, while Jermar Jefferson has tallied 449 yards on 62 carries for the Beavers in 2020. But Oregon has the decisive advantage in the quarterback battle.

Sophomore signal caller Tyler Shough has torched opposing defenses for the Ducks this year, completing 66.3% of his passes for 10.2 yards per attempt with a 8:2 touchdown-interception ratio. By contrast, Beavers junior quarterback Tristan Gebbia has completed only 62% of his throws for 6.2 yards per attempt with a 2:3 touchdown-interception ratio.

Ducks and Beavers statistics and rankings

TeamPassing YardsRushing YardsPassing Yards AllowedRushing Yards Allowed
Oregon Ducks
291.0 (24th)
208.7 (27th)
244.0 (78th)
188.0 (89th)
Oregon State Beavers
189.7 (103rd)
164.7 (64th)
227.7 (57th)
206.7 (104th)

Neither team is doing it with defense

Bettors should not count on a defensive slugfest at Reser Stadium on Friday night. Oregon enters this affair ranked 102nd in the country by yards allowed per play (6.3). Oregon State’s stoppers have not fared much better in 2020, ranking 82nd by the same metric (5.9).

Will Oregon cover the spread against Oregon State in Week 13?

Trends suggest Oregon is the better bet

A bounce-back effort appears to be in order for the Ducks based on recent trends. Oregon has covered in six of its last seven games following a spread loss. The Ducks are also 5-1 against the spread in their last six games as road favorites.

Oregon State has failed to cover in nine of its last 12 games as a home underdog.

Score prediction: Oregon 38, Oregon State 21

NCAAF pick: Oregon -14


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