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Outback Bowl: Ole Miss vs. Indiana odds, preview, and pick

Profile Picture: Dan Halverson

December 28th, 2020

Two of the ascending coaches in college football matchup in the Outback Bowl on Saturday, Jan. 2 as Tom Allen and the Indiana Hoosiers take on Lane Kiffin and the Mississippi Rebels.

Sat, January 2 2021, 5:30 PM

Indiana Hoosiers

Moneyline

-250

Spread

-6.5

Total

O 66.5

Ole Miss Rebels

Moneyline

+197

Spread

+6.5

Total

U 66.5

Indiana continues to be underrated 

Indiana enjoyed one of its most successful seasons in school history in 2020, achieving its highest AP ranking (11) since 1968. Despite the program's success, and the only loss coming narrowly on the road at Ohio State, the Hoosiers were passed over for a New Year’s Six bowl and will use that as motivation heading into this bowl matchup.

The Hoosiers finished the season at 6-1, and perhaps more incredibly, were a perfect 7-0 against the spread. In addition to feeling slighted by outsiders, Indiana has 10 players from the Tampa area that will be making a homecoming trip of sorts, including three of their All-Big Ten players.

What will we see from Matt Corral?

Lane Kiffin is one of the more notorious coaches in all of sports, having risen to fame with the Oakland Raiders before going to Tennessee, USC, Alabama, FAU, and Mississippi. He is known as an offensive guru and has great success with quarterbacks, including his latest pupil, Matt Corral.

Corral has led the Rebels all season, achieving a 4-5 straight-up record and 4-5 record against the spread. With Corral and Kiffin at the helm, the Rebels ranked third in the SEC this season in both passing offense and scoring, and first in rushing. Corral is an electric player that will gladly use his feet and shoulders for an extra yard, but he faltered many times with poor decisions that led to interceptions. He had 14 interceptions on the season.

In the Rebels’ last game, Corral struggled against LSU without his top receivers. With Elijah Moore and Kenny Yeboah focusing on the 2021 NFL Draft, Corral threw five interceptions against what has been an otherwise lackluster LSU defense. While the Rebels did still manage 48 points, it will be important for Corral to find a rhythm with his other weapons on the outside if Ole Miss wants to find success against a tough Indiana defense.

Will Indiana cover the spread against Ole Miss in the Outback Bowl?

Expect Corral to outduel Tuttle

Indiana has been a rewarding team for backers this year, covering the spread in every one of their games. Their starting quarterback for the majority of the season, Michael Penix Jr., is out with injury, however, and replacement Jack Tuttle only has two starts under his belt. Tuttle successfully won and covered in his two starts, but I don’t think he can score points at the same pace as Corral and the Rebels in this matchup.

Kiffin is an excellent schemer, and while Indiana is surely licking its chops at the opportunity to intercept Corral, I believe Kiffin will find a way to set his quarterback up for success knowing defenders will be looking to jump routes. Expect plenty of double moves out of the Rebels’ receivers in this one.

Score prediction: Ole Miss 31, Indiana 28

NCAAF pick: Ole Miss +6.5

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