Saturday's NCAAF Week 13 Picks - Ready for Rivalry Week!

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D.S. Williamson

November 23rd, 2018

Because Auburn hasn’t had that great of a season, the yearly battle with Alabama this Saturday has lost some luster. Dubbed the Iron Bowl, the game between the Tigers and Crimson Tide has often decided the SEC West winner. That won’t happen this season because the Tide’s run away with the division. Is Alabama still the take in NCAAF Week 13 picks despite a big (and growing) line?

The Iron Bowl is routinely one of the most entertaining games of the year, and those disheartened by the lack of competition this year can find a lot of other action in Rivalry Week. The Big Ten throw down between Michigan and Ohio State will be outstanding. Michigan has a spot in the College Football Playoff to protect and is a favorite even though the game takes place in Columbus. Who knows the last time that happened. The Buckeyes would like nothing more than to dominate Jim Harbaugh’s squad and send them not only out of the CFP, but also out of the Big Ten Championship.

Other big matchups this week include South Carolina heading to Clemson to test the Tigers, and Notre Dame taking on rival USC in Los Angeles. Check out analysis and picks for all of Saturday’s top college football games!

Saturday, Nov. 24

#13 Florida Gators -5.5 at Florida State Seminoles

The Gators face an improved Florida State team in Week 13. FSU put together its best performance of the season when they beat Boston College 22-21 as a home dog. Still, the Seminoles are 3-9-2 ATS versus a team with a winning record while Florida is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 following an SU win. The Gators get the call.

NCAAF Week 13 Picks: Florida -5.5

#4 Michigan Wolverines -4 at #10 Ohio State Buckeyes

Since the Week 1 loss to Notre Dame, Michigan’s been unstoppable, rolling off 10 straight wins. Versus the spread, the Wolverines haven’t been as dominant, going 6-5 overall and 0-2 in the last couple. Ohio State has been horrible against the spread against conference opponents with a 1-6 ATS record. This game will still have that heated energy surrounding it, but Michigan should win and cover in a shootout.

NCAAF Week 13 Picks: Michigan -4

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at #5 Georgia Bulldogs -17

Georgia Tech’s on a mini-roll going 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS. Georgia’s on a bigger roll with their 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS record because 3 teams that they beat were ranked Florida, tough Kentucky, and SEC power Auburn. This one's a no-brainer despite a massive line.

NCAAF Week 13 Picks: Georgia -17

#12 Syracuse Orange at #20 Boston College Eagles -7

Both teams need a win. Based on trends, Boston College should cover, but Syracuse starting quarterback Eric Dungey’s listed as 'probable'. If Dungey can’t go, Tommy DeVito’s talented enough to fill in. Nobody really knows what’s going to happen in this game, especially me, which is why I’m taking the points. Syracuse has played with too much pride to lay down after a 3-36 against Notre Dame. They bounce back here with a rousing road effort.

NCAAF Week 13 Picks: Syracuse +7

Maryland Terrapins at #14 Penn State Nittany Lions -14

Maryland pushed Ohio State to the limit in a 51-52 loss last weekend, and it's hard not to see them as a gassed squad heading in to another heavy tilt. Although most feel Maryland covers, the trends say they don’t. The Terrapins are a horrible 6-24 ATS in their last 30 after an ATS win. They’re also 2-9 ATS in their last 11 on the road versus a team with a winning home record. I’m not going to read too much into the Ohio State almost upset. Maryland is probably better than I'm giving them credit for, but Ohio State is also worse than people want to admit. I’ll lay the points.

NCAAF Week 13 Picks: Penn State -14

Auburn Tigers at #1 Alabama Crimson Tide -24.5

This shouldn’t be competitive, but this is a lot of points to give up to a rival. Then again, the Crimson Tide are 4-1 ATS in their last 5, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 versus a team with a winning record, and 4-0 ATS in the last 4 conference games. Also, if there’s any team that Nick Saban will let his players demolish without abandon, it’s Auburn.

NCAAF Week 13 Picks: Alabama -24.5

South Carolina Gamecocks at #2 Clemson Tigers -26.5

Clemson’s gone 5-1 ATS in their last 6. The Gamecocks might be the best team Clemson’s faced in a while though. Not only that, South Carolina is 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 on the road, 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 on the road versus a team with a winning home record, and 11-4 ATS in their last 15 versus the ACC.

NCAAF Week 13 Picks: South Carolina +26.5

#7 LSU Tigers at Texas A&M Aggies -2.5

LSU did bounce out of their loss to Alabama with 2 straight wins. The thing to worry about is how the Tigers have gone a terrible 0-3 ATS in their last 3. Texas A&M is 8-1 ATS in their last 9 at home, 9-2 ATS in their last 11 on grass, and 9-3 ATS in their last 12. LSU might be more hype than substance right now. I’ll lay the points on the home favorite.

NCAAF Week 13 Picks: Texas A&M -2.5

#3 Notre Dame Fighting Irish -10.5 at USC Trojans

It feels like USC’s given up on the season. The Trojans couldn’t even manage a win over lowly rival UCLA in their last. USC is 1-4 ATS at home and 1-4 ATS in their last 5. In the Trojans favor are a couple of trends:  the home teams is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 and the Irish are 2-6 ATS in the last 8 at USC. Those are powerful trends. They’re not powerful enough for me to take the points. Notre Dame will have no problem laying waste to their historical rival, especially on their own turf.

NCAAF Week 13 Picks: Notre Dame -10.5

#23 Utah State Aggies at #25 Boise State Broncos -2.5

The winner moves on to the MWC Championship. Some are backing Boise State, but the Broncos are 6-4 ATS while Utah State is 9-2 ATS. Boise is also 6-15 ATS in their last 21 home games. The Aggies have a real shot of winning this game straight up, but I’ll be safe and grab the 2.5.

NCAAF Week 13 Picks: Utah State +2.5