Saturday's Top College Football Week 10 Free Picks

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D.S. Williamson

November 1st, 2018

#1 Alabama and #4 LSU are the two best teams in the SEC, and their annual battle of attrition is going to be a deciding factor in how the rest of this season plays out. Bama battles the Tigers on Saturday in the biggest matchup yet this season. Alabama’s been unbelievable, but LSU upset Georgia and have been tinkering on the edge of greatness all year. If the Tigers upset Alabama, they might stamp their ticket to the College Football Playoff even if they lose a second game. You'll have to read on to see which side I back in my college football Week 10 free picks.

Alabama and LSU aren’t the only teams with a lot to lose on Saturday. The scorching Northwestern Wildcats host the #3 Notre Dame Irish, who aren’t a lock to either cover, or win straight up. With a loss, Notre Dame might fall out of the Selection Committee’s favor because their strength of schedule has taken a serious hit. Among the impressive wins over Michigan and Stanford are a lot of Irish victories over bad teams like Vanderbilt and Ball State. Notre Dame can’t just beat Northwestern - they have to beat them impressively.

Check out my analysis of Alabama at LSU, Notre Dame at Northwestern, and the rest of the top matchups onSaturday in my rundown of the best College Football Week 10 free picks.

Saturday, Nov. 2

Louisville Cardinals at #2 Clemson Tigers -38.5

Clemson hasn’t allowed any of their last 3 opponents to score more than 10 points while Louisville allows an awful 36 per. Tigers are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game. They’re 6-1 ATS in their last 7 ACC battles. The line’s monstrous, but I don’t mind laying it.

College Football Week 10 Free Picks: Clemson -38.5

Texas A&M Aggies at Auburn Tigers -4

I can’t separate these two on paper. So, I’ll go to the trends where Aggies are 6-1 ATS versus a team with a winning record, and 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games on grass. Auburn’s 1-6 ATS versus a team with a winning record and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games. Texas A&M could beat the Tigers straight up.

College Football Week 10 Free Picks: Texas A&M +155 ML

Nebraska Cornhuskers at #8 Ohio State Buckeyes -17.5

Conrhusker bettors have pounded Ohio State down from -21 to -17.5. The line movement might scare some. It won’t scare me just because Nebraska fields one of the worst defenses in college football. The Buckeyes got an entire week to think about the loss to Purdue and they should blow out Nebraska by close to 30 on Saturday. This is a big statement game for OSU, and they'll make it loudly and proudly.

College Football Week 10 Free Picks: Ohio State -17.5 

#5 Georgia Bulldogs -9.5 at #12 Kentucky Wildcats

Georgia looked solid beating Florida 36-17 in Week 8, but considering how up-and-down their season has been, I'm not sure if that doesn't make them a bit of a letdown candidate. Kentucky only allows 13 points per game, ranking 2nd in college football. The Wildcats can frustrate Georgia quarterback Jake Fromm. Kentucky shouldn’t win, but they should definitely keep it close enough to cover. And by the way, I said "shouldn't win"...a daring moneyline play is not out of the question for the Lexington locals. This game is going to be awesome.

College Football Week 10 Free Picks: Kentucky +9.5

#10 West Virginia Mountaineers at #15 Texas Longhorns -2

The Longhorns have gone 1-4 ATS in their last 5. Texas made a furious rally to lose by only 3 points to Oklahoma State in their last. That was a road game, and they should play better in Austin, but the Mountaineers can score against any defense in college football. West Virginia should win this straight up.

College Football Week 10 Free Picks: West Virginia moneyline

#13 Penn State Nittany Lions at #5 Michigan Wolverines -10

Michigan is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 conference games, and 4-1 ATS versus a team with a winning record. The Wolverines are 0-6 against the spread in their last 6 after a bye. Based on that trend, 10 are too many points to give to a ranked team.

College Football Week 10 Free Picks: Penn State +10

#3 Notre Dame Fighting Irish -9.5 at Northwestern Wildcats

The Irish should struggle to move the ball against a Northwestern team that held Wisconsin to 17 points in Week 8. Northwestern’s on a roll, winning 4 straight. Around November is when Notre Dame usually falters. The Irish are 7-20 ATS in their last 27 games in November. I’m taking the points and trying not to overthink this one.

College Football Week 10 Free Picks: Northwestern +9.5

#1 Alabama Crimson Tide -14.5 at #4 LSU Tigers

Don’t expect one of those old school 10-9 Alabama-LSU games on Saturday. Bama averages 54 points per, more than any team in college football while LSU scores 30 per. This should be a shootout, and when it gets to that point, the Crimson Tide roll to an easy win because LSU won’t keep up. The Tide are so good that quarterback Tua Tagovailoa has yet to play in the fourth quarter. I don’t think he plays in the fourth quarter on Saturday, either.

College Football Week 10 Free Picks: Alabama -14.5

#7 Oklahoma Sooners -13 at Texas Tech Red Raiders

Oklahoma should blow out Texas Tech on Saturday, but the trends say otherwise. The home team is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings while Oklahoma is 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings at Texas Tech. The Red Raiders average enough points, 42.2, to keep this one closer than the spread.

College Football Week 10 Free Picks: Texas Tech +13

California Golden Bears at #11 Washington State Cougars -10.5

Washington State is 8-0 ATS. They’re averaging over 40 points and host California a week after upsetting Stanford straight up on the road. The Cougars are 3 points away from being undefeated. Cal has looked good in their last couple of games, but they face the best team in the Pac 12 on Saturday. WASU will win and cover.

College Football Week 10 Free Picks: Washington State -10.5