Scully’s Week 12 College Football Free Picks

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November 14th, 2018

Our very own James Scully maintained a strong record in NCAAF betting, going 3-1 ATS last week to bring his season record to 28-15-1 ATS (65.1%). Follow his lead as he guides you through his four favorite games and Week 12 College Football free picks!

*ATS (Against the Spread) / SU (Straight Up) * PK indicates pick *home team in caps

North Carolina State (-17.0) vs LOUISVILLE CARDINALS (Saturday 12:20 p.m. ET)

North Carolina State (-17.0) exits a tough one, losing 27-23 to Wake Forest as double-digit home favorite, and they’ve dropped two of the last three games despite being favored in each. But Wolfpack offense remains high-scoring and it’s easy to fade a Louisville team in disarray. Excluding Clemson game, NC State averaging 36 points per game in last seven contests, with Ryan Finley the 11th ranked QB nationally by passing yards and QBR, and NC State (6-3 SU) can still earn a decent bowl berth in a down year for the ACC.

Louisville enters at 1-9 ATS and has really hit the skids of late, allowing more than 58 points per game as they’ve failed to cover a game since September. Cardinals simply playing out the string over the final two weeks as they await a new coaching regime and an overhaul of stagnant offensive and defensive units. Louisville likes to give ball away (127th in turnover differential at -12) and has shown a genuine disinterest when falling behind. Lay the lumber!

Week 12 College Football Free Picks – Bet North Carolina St. -17.0 over Louisville!

Syracuse Orangemen (+11) vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish - Yankees Stadium (Saturday 2:30 p.m. ET)

Syracuse (+11) had Clemson on the ropes before surrendering 4th quarter lead and can compete against any team outside of Alabama. And considering Notre Dame arguably peaked earlier in season, this line can be exploited. Orangemen went through midseason slump after heartbreaking setback at Clemson, losing next game to Pittsburgh and recording a 1-3 ATS stretch. But they’ve rebounded with an offensive outburst in recent weeks, averaging nearly 50 points per game as they’ve covered three straight, and it’s an offense loaded with weapons at every skill position (Syracuse 8-2 SU). Orangemen 4-0-1 ATS in last five non-conference games and enter on an impressive 9-2 ATS underdog run under coach Dino Babers. Syracuse will keep it exciting in a game decided by less than a touchdown.

Notre Dame a terrible proposition laying this many points against a quality opponent; Irish able to push Michigan around in season-opener but hasn’t faced a quality offense since. Syracuse features one of the nation’s most prolific attacks, ranking 14th offensively, and Notre Dame has sustained a couple of key injuries since starting the season fast. QB Ian Book, who was held out of last week’s game, enters banged-up and will face an under appreciated Syracuse secondary with 14 interceptions. Inspired Orangemen will show up ready to play the spoiler’s role and love getting the points!

Week 12 College Football Free Picks – Bet Syracuse +11 over Notre Dame!

Missouri Tigers (-6) vs TENNESSEE VOLUNTEERS (Saturday 3:30 p.m. ET)

Missouri (-6) the second-best team in SEC East but Tigers let a pair of winnable games get away from them against Kentucky and South Carolina, surrendering 2nd-half leads to lose by less than a FG. But there’s still plenty to play for in terms of bowl destination if they can finish 8-4 SU with four consecutive wins. Mizzou played their best game two weeks ago on the road, pounding Florida 38-17, and bring an underrated defense to Knoxville. Big and tough up front, Tigers rank 30th nationally vs run despite facing two of the nation’s top rushing teams (Alabama and Georgia) and one-dimensional run offense of 7-3 Kentucky (held Snell to 67 yards). The offense has improved with recent return of WR Hall (who still led the team in TD receptions despite missing five games) and motivated Mizzou should dominate this inferior foe.

Kudos to Tennessee for capitalizing upon an anemic Kentucky in full-blown hangover mode last week but don’t let the rare SEC win (2-13 SU last 15 conference games) cloud your judgement– this is the same Vols squad that couldn’t put up 200 yards of offense (including only 20 rushing yards) on a Charlotte team with a losing record two weeks ago, managing to win due to a Pick 6 and short-field TD. Tennessee won’t be able to trade points with Mizzou’s high-powered attack -- Vols feature the 113th ranked offense (only 26 teams average fewer rushing yards per game) – and the favorite has paid dividends in this series of late, posting a 4-1 ATS mark. Tigers not the most reliable road team this year but show a respectable 6-4 ATS road record over the past two seasons. QB Drew Lock looking to finish his college career on a strong note in advance of the NFL Draft and Mizzou appears vastly superior on both sides of the ball. Tigers win by double-digits!

Week 12 College Football Free Picks – Bet Missouri -6 over Tennessee!

Iowa State (+3) vs TEXAS LONGHORNS (Saturday 8 p.m. ET)

Improving teams can be the best friend of bettors and Iowa St. (+3) has progressed more than any team since the start of the season. In his third year, Matt Campbell has established himself as an up-and-coming talent in the coaching ranks but plenty of credit goes to QB Brock Purdy, who came out of nowhere to complete nearly 70% of his passes (trailing only Alabama’s Tua and Oklahoma’s Murray). A true freshman with no acclaim out of high school, Purdy entered the year third-string and expected to redshirt. Fate had other plans when starter Kempt went down with a knee injury and back-up Noland struggled in a loss to TCU. Purdy made his debut in the difficult confines of Stillwater (Oklahoma St) and after throwing for 400+ yards and accounting for five TDs, a star was born. Cyclones kicking butt and taking names, with 5-0 SU record under Purdy including a beat down of West Virginia, and his gaudy stats include 13 TDs and only two interceptions. The defense has held three of the last four opponents to 14 points or less and while they won’t have RB Montgomery for the first half, it won’t matter; Iowa St. simply playing at a much higher level presently than Texas.

Defense has become an afterthought in Austin because Texas can’t run the ball effectively and must outscore opponents, averaging 38 points over the last five games. The problem is they’re surrendering more than 34 points a game and a once-promising season is starting to get away from the declining Longhorns, who have lost two of the last three SU and are 1-3 ATS in the last four contests. These teams are going different directions and all the numbers favor Iowa St., who has covered five of the last six games and posted a 7-2 ATS mark in the last nine road games. Take the points with confidence!

Week 12 College Football Free Picks – Bet Iowa St. +3 over Texas!

James Scully is a professional handicapper who hails from the great state of Ohio. You can follow him on Twitter @JamesScully.