Homecollege football

SEC football picks: #5 Georgia at #13 Auburn & 5 more

Profile Picture: Nick Roush

November 14th, 2019

Georgia Bulldogs
-2.5 (-117)
O 40.5 (-112)
Auburn Tigers
+2.5 (-103)
U 40.5 (-108)
Ranked fifth in the most recent edition of the College Football Rankings, even with an awful loss to South Carolina, Georgia still has a shot to return to the final four if they can win at Auburn. That’s easier said than done.

The Bulldogs’ offense has struggled against good defenses, especially those that are stout in the trenches. Against Florida, South Carolina and Notre Dame, they averaged just a hair more than 21 points. The good news is that 21 points may be enough to take down the Tigers.

Auburn’s offense is not exactly what you would describe as dynamic, as it relies heavily on its running game with Bo Nix in run-pass options. It only takes one mistake by the true freshman quarterback to give Georgia the momentum it needs to win on the road. Georgia’s defense still has not allowed a rushing score this year, but that streak will end Saturday.

Auburn has a way of making college football weird in November, and I don’t expect that trend to end in 2019.

Pick: Auburn +2.5

#11 Florida (-7) at Missouri, Saturday, noon ET, CBS

Missouri is a completely different team at home, but the team that rolled in Columbia earlier in the season has scored 21 total points in its last three games. Florida’s defense isn’t Georgia’s, but it is still good enough to prevent a banged-up Kelly Bryant from covering.

Pick: Florida -7

#4 Alabama (-17.5) at Mississippi State, Saturday, noon ET, ESPN

The line opened at Alabama -21 and has not stopped falling. Sure, Mississippi State hung tough for a half the last time they hosted a top-five team at home, but the Bulldogs don’t have the dogs to keep up with the Crimson Tide, even if Tua Tagovailoa is sidelined.

Pick: Alabama -17.5

Kentucky (-10) at Vanderbilt , Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, SEC Network

The last time Vanderbilt played a running quarterback, Ole Miss rushed for 413 yards and 9.3 yards per carry. Kentucky should be able to move the ball, but scoring touchdowns is a different story. Typically a close game between the two SEC East foes, I can see a scenario where Vanderbilt wins a close one, Kentucky wins close or blows the game wide open. I don’t see one where the two struggling offenses score enough to hit the Over.

Pick: Under 41.5

South Carolina at Texas A&M (-11.5), Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET, SEC Network

This game was supposed to be South Carolina’s last chance for bowl eligibility, until the Gamecocks lost at home to Appalachian State. Stick a fork in them. The 4-6 Cocks are done.

Pick: Texas A&M -11.5

#1 LSU (-21.5) at Mississippi, Saturday, 7 p.m. ET, ESPN

It’s the perfect time for a let-down game. Ole Miss won’t be able to outscore Joe Burrow and the Tigers’ high-powered offense, but their QB run game will be able to score and keep it out of Burrow’s hands long enough to cover the three-touchdown spread.

Pick: Ole Miss +21.5