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The best upset picks for Week 11 of the college football season

Profile Picture: Dan Halverson

November 10th, 2021

It was another wild week in college football, with Alabama almost falling as a 28.5-point favorite and eight of the top 25 teams losing. Michigan State and Wake Forest were the biggest to fall and see their undefeated seasons end, while Cincinnati barely kept their postseason hopes alive, squeaking by Tulsa, 28-20.

Let’s take a look at the Week 11 slate and find a few more underdogs that could win outright.

Minnesota vs. Iowa

Sat, November 13 2021, 8:30 PM

Iowa

Moneyline

-240

Spread

-6

Total

O 37

Minnesota

Moneyline

+185

Spread

+6

Total

U 37

The Minnesota Golden Gophers looked abysmal last week vs Illinois, struggling to score in a humiliating defeat that prevented them from taking sole possession of first place in the Big Ten West. Now they must bounce back against an Iowa team that joins them in a four-way tie for first place.

Minnesota has historically bounced back from defeats, going 8-2 against the spread in their last 10 games following an outright loss. Quarterback Tanner Morgan is having an off year, but Minnesota is averaging 5.0 yards per rush over their last three games and will try to control the ball to spring this upset.

Iowa’s offense has struggled recently, and is averaging just 3.0 yards per rush in their last three outings. In what should be an intense battle for a chance at the Big Ten West title, look for a bounce back from the Golden Gophers in this division matchup.

Maryland vs. Michigan State

Sat, November 13 2021, 9:00 PM

Michigan State

Moneyline

-530

Spread

-12.5

Total

O 62

Maryland

Moneyline

+380

Spread

+12.5

Total

U 62

The Michigan State Spartans just saw their undefeated season come to an end and the race back to regression might be harsh and swift.

Maryland has a passing attack that can threaten any secondary, and if the Spartans have a letdown following their defeat at Purdue, this could make for a surprising second loss similar to what we witnessed with Iowa after they rose to No. 2. The Spartans have covered just two of their last 14 games as a home favorite.

Notre Dame vs. Virginia

Sun, November 14 2021, 12:30 AM

Virginia

Moneyline

+163

Spread

+5.5

Total

O 64.5

Notre Dame

Moneyline

-210

Spread

-5.5

Total

U 64.5

Last time we saw Virginia they were playing in a crazy shootout against BYU, ultimately succumbing due to some horrible defensive play.

The offense has looked potent nearly all season, however, with now-veteran quarterback Brennan Armstrong putting up impressive statistics in 2021. He has 3,557 yards and 27 touchdowns, with another seven touchdowns on the ground.

The BYU offense exposed Virginia’s soft run defense, but Notre Dame is just 96th in the county in yards per rush attempt and won’t be as dangerous as the Cougars were.

Virginia is 13-3 against the spread in their last 16 games off a bye, and 20-6-1 ATS in their last 27 home games.

North Carolina vs. Pittsburgh

Fri, November 12 2021, 12:30 AM

Pittsburgh

Moneyline

-235

Spread

-7

Total

O 73.5

North Carolina

Moneyline

+185

Spread

+7

Total

U 73.5

The North Carolina Tar Heels began the season as a top-10 ranked team but have faltered with poor defense, giving up 33.4 points per game.

Now they must face a Pittsburgh team that is eighth in the nation in points per game and fourth in the nation in passing yards per game. This will clearly spell trouble for the Tar Heels, but when it comes to shootouts that is exactly the type of game they hope to play and are accustomed to competing in.

Last week against undefeated Wake Forest the Tar Heels fell behind by double digits, surrendered 55 points, and still won the game. The defense won’t be getting any better in 2021, but the offense is still capable of scoring in bunches and keeping them in any game. The Tar Heels are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games against Pittsburgh, and this is their opportunity to knock off the team leading the division they were expected to win.

Washington State vs. Oregon

Sun, November 14 2021, 3:30 AM

Oregon

Moneyline

-625

Spread

-14

Total

O 57

Washington State

Moneyline

+425

Spread

+14

Total

U 57

The Washington State Cougars have covered six straight games, five straight games at Oregon, and 10 of the last 11 between these two teams. Despite the turmoil at Washington State surrounding former head coach Nick Rolovich, the Cougars are second in the Pac-12 North and have this opportunity to pass the Ducks and take first place in the division.

It would be a shocking upset, but nobody expected Washington State to even be in this spot at the start of the year.

Coming off a nice road win against Arizona State, Washington State got a bye week heading into this matchup in order to prepare for an Oregon offense that is coming off a tough contest at Washington in the rain last week.

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