Week 11 NCAAF Bedlam Betting – Oklahoma State at Oklahoma

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TwinSpires Staff

November 9th, 2018

Oklahoma State Cowboys (5-4) at Oklahoma Sooners (8-1) Saturday, November 10th – Oklahoma Memorial Stadium – 3:30pm ET (ABC) Week 11 NCAAF Bedlam Betting Line: Oklahoma -21  (79.0)

Teams chasing a college football playoff spot can be difficult to bet against, as style points and running up the score can enhance their profile and perception. Wins are more important of course, but Oklahoma (-21.0) is currently No. 6 in the college football playoff rankings and the Sooners have an explosive offense that is fan friendly and fun to watch. Oklahoma needs 3 more wins and some help to leapfrog into the top-4 for the college football playoff and a chance to play for a national championship. Rolling it up on the rival would enhance Oklahoma’s chances.

The November rivalry games hit their stride this month, and a big shootout is expected in this Week 11 NCAAF Bedlam betting battle as the total has risen sharply and may hit 80 by game day. Oklahoma has won 11 of the last 13 in this rivalry, and covered the last three meetings. Oklahoma QB Tyler Murray is directing one of the most explosive and efficient offenses in many seasons. The Sooners play at a fast pace and average 49.1 points per game and 563 yards per game, both No. 2 in the country, and a nation-best 8.7 yards per play. The Sooners have scored at least 51 points in each of their last three games and held off Texas Tech last week in Lubbock, 51-46.

Oklahoma State (+21.0) has lost three of the last four games including two road losses as at least a touchdown favorite at Kansas State and last week at Baylor, when the Cowboys rolled up 512 yards offense and still lost 35-31. Defensive breakdowns, penalties and inconsistent play has hindered Oklahoma State, and it sure looks like the Sooners will hit 50 points again this week in Week 11 NCAAF Bedlam betting. However, intensity and defensive effort often rise in these rivalry games, and in his coaching career at Oklahoma State, Mike Gundy’s has gotten his Cowboys to bounce back after losing as a favorite, going 4-0-1 SU and 5-0 ATS the next game when installed as an underdog.

But Oklahoma’s defense is deficient, even with the change of defensive coordinators last month. Perhaps it’s a bit better, but the Sooners still rank No. 127 in the country in red zone defense. Oklahoma State is capable of both running and passing for at least 200 yards on Oklahoma, which makes their balanced attack one to consider, especially since they're getting a boatload of points in this rivalry game. Oklahoma State was good enough to beat Texas at home 38-35 while gaining 502 yards of offense on a Longhorns team that beat Oklahoma for the Sooners' only loss this season. Only way to play the total is over if you bet it, but I like the betting line. It’s only going up!

Week 11 NCAAF Bedlam Betting Pick: Oklahoma State +21.0 (OVER)

Fairway Jay is a professional handicapper based out of Las Vegas. He focuses primarily on the four majors along with college football and college basketball. You can follow him on Twitter @FairwayJay.