Week 11 NCAAF Betting - Wisconsin vs. Penn State

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TwinSpires Staff

November 8th, 2018

The stakes are not as high as these teams had hoped, but Wisconsin and Penn State still have a score to settle in Week 11 NCAAF betting . Penn State beat Wisconsin 38-31 in the 2016 Big Ten Championship game, and Wisconsin has the motivation knowing they still have an outside shot to win the Big Ten West, which would return them to the Big Ten Championship. The beleaguered Penn State is out of the race in the East but will happily play the role of spoiler

Wisconsin Badgers (6-3) at Penn State Nittany Lions (6-3) Saturday, November 10th – Beaver Stadium - 12:00pm ET (ABC) Week 11 NCAAF Betting Line: Penn State -8   Total 54

Penn State is just 3-3 in Big Ten play, and the Nittany Lions have lost twice on its home field to Ohio State and Michigan State. Then last week, Penn State was buried at Michigan 42-7. Returning home as a favorite at this price is not preferred if you’re betting on Penn State, as Wisconsin is a live Week 11 NCAAF betting underdog even with its backup quarterback likely to start.

The Nittany Lions defense has been sub-par this season, and they have yet to hold any of its six Big Ten opponents to less than 21 points. Penn State has been out-gained by each of their last four opponents and gone 0-4 ATS. The 30-24 win over Iowa two weeks was fortunate and saw the line go from -6.5 to -5.5. Wisconsin did lose by double digits in October to both Michigan and Northwestern, but the Badgers were good enough to win on the road against a quality Iowa team 28-17 as a 3-point road favorite. Wisconsin had 415 total yards against a solid Iowa defense and both rushed and passed for more than 200 yards in victory. That same Iowa team out-gained Penn State on this field and blew a chance at victory in the closing minutes when an interception on 1st-and-goal sealed the deal for Penn State. The Nittany Lions had just 312 total yards in that game and QB Trace McSorely was 11/25 for 167 passing yards. Following their bye week, a less than full strength McSorely was just 5/13 for 83 yards and an interception against Michigan’s dominant defense last week.

At the start of the season, Las Vegas posted Penn State as a 1.5-point favorite in this match-up. What has Penn State done to now to be laying 8? Wisconsin has underperformed, and QB Alex Hornibrook probably doesn’t start with concussion symptoms. Backup QB Jack Coan started two weeks ago at Northwestern, and is now better prepared. The Badgers will still rely on its pound-the-ground attack and should fare well this week against a Penn State team that is wearing down having  just been pummeled at Michigan. Wisconsin runs the ball 44 times per game for 273.0 yards per game to rank No. 3 in the country. Running back Jonathan Taylor is by far the Big Ten’s leading rusher with 1,363 yards at 6.6 yards per rush and league-leading 11 rushing touchdowns. Wisconsin has been out-gained on the road by 59 yards per game, but the Badgers are in a better state, have an outside chance to still win the Big Ten West and are plenty capable of winning, making these points generous.

Week 11 NCAAF Betting Pick: Wisconsin +8.0

Fairway Jay is a professional handicapper based out of Las Vegas. He focuses primarily on the four majors along with college football and college basketball. You can follow him on Twitter @FairwayJay.