Week 13 College Football Betting - #8 UCF vs. South Florida

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D.S. Williamson

November 22nd, 2018

The Central Florida Knights travel to Tampa to battle longtime nemesis South Florida Bulls on Friday afternoon in a major Week 13 College Football betting showdown. UCF might wonder what they must do to get some love from the College Football Playoff Selection Committee.

The Knights have won 23 straight, 13-0 last season and 10-0 this season. Central Florida’s easily the top non-Big 5 Conference team in the nation. The fact that they’re 7-3 ATS means UCF isn’t just skating by. The Knights are pummeling their opponents.

South Florida hopes to avoid becoming the Knights’ latest victim straight up as two-touchdown home dogs. The Bulls started the season on a 7-game win streak. Since that time, they’ve dropped 4 in a row.

There is no better time for USF to turn it around than upsetting the mighty Central Florida Knights.

COLLEGE WEEK 13 FOOTBALL BETTING Central Florida Knights at South Florida Bulls Friday, November 23rd– Raymond James Stadium – 4:15pm ET Odds: UCF -14 (68.5)

Central Florida Can’t Lose Focus

Coach Josh Huepel knows that if Central Florida wants to have any shot at the CFP, or even a shot to play on New Year’s Day, they can’t lose focus. Boise State, Fresno State, Utah State, and even Army have all played well enough this season to grab the coveted New Year’s Day Bowl bid handed out to the best non-Big 5 Conference team.

Utah State’s not only ranked, but the Aggies are 10-1. If UCF loses and Utah State beats Boise State on Saturday, there's no way the Knights get the nod.

That’s why this game means something even though Central Florida has won 23 in a row. If the Knights lose focus and the winning streak ends, or they aren’t impressive enough, forget the CFP. Central Florida could head to the AAC Championship without a real hope of making it to a New Year’s Day Bowl game.

By UCF standards, that would make the season a brutal disappointment. There's a lot of motivation for Central Florida to catch the eyes of the committee, and covering against a big Week 13 College Football betting line would also curry favor with the public.

South Florida Must Embrace Underdog Role

It’s hard to understand how or why Charlie Strong's once shimmering star has fallen so far, so fast. Some might blame the offense, which has taken an elongated nap since hanging 38 onto Connecticut on Oct. 20. Others might blame South Florida’s unit on the other side of the ball, which has suddenly forgotten how to keep teams out of their own endzone. Maybe, the truth’s that Strong pushed all the right buttons early in the season, and the efficacy of his methods just wore off over time.

If that’s the case, the good news is that Strong might have found some ways to motivate the squad. Even though South Florida hosts UCF on a 4-game losing streak, the Bulls have covered in their last two games, which is inviting news given how big this spread is.

Strong should have a decent strategy in place to make USF competitive against the Knights. If his team embraces the underdog role, plays with no fear, and follow Strong’s strategy, the Bulldogs could perform well above their talent level.

Week 13 College Football Betting Trends - UCF vs. South Florida

Not many believe in South Florida, which makes sense because Central Florida has been one of the best college football programs the past two seasons. However, South Florida has always been scrappy in this conference and UCF only beat the Bulls by 7 points in last year’s game by a score of 49-42.

Some trends point to USF being competitive, but other strong trends point to the Knights covering. The Bulls are 3-9 ATS in their last 11 conference games. They’re 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games on grass. The road team in the rivalry is 4-1 ATS in the last 5. Central Florida’s gone 3-1 ATS in their last 4.

The positive USF trends should give their fans some comfort. What won’t help them sleep on Thanksgiving night is that even if Coach Strong pushes all the right buttons, South Florida just might not be good enough to prevent the blowout loss.

UCF knows the only way to gain any attention’s to demolish South Florida on Friday. That’s what they’ll do by easily covering the spread.

Week 13 College Football Betting Free Pick: Central Florida -14