Week 13 NCAAF Betting - Will Grier vs. Kyler Murray (OKLA -1.5 at WVU)

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D.S. Williamson

November 21st, 2018

The Oklahoma Sooners attempt to keep their College Football Playoff hopes alive while the West Virginia Mountaineers try to stamp their ticket to the Big 12 Championship when two of the top teams in college football clash in a special Friday night Week 13 NCAAF betting brawl.

The Sooners have been unbeatable since the 45-48 loss to Texas in the annual Red River Rivalry. Oklahoma’s dominated the rest of their Big 12 opponents as well. However, West Virginia might be the best team that the Sooners have faced this season. Fitting, because if Oklahoma beats WVU this week and goes on to win the Big 12 Championship, their case for a CFP spot gets much louder.

West Virginia’s College Football Playoff dreams escaped through the window after the loss to Oklahoma State in Week 12. The Mountaineers aren’t just playing to stop Oklahoma from making it to the CFP, though. WVU can win the Big 12 next week if they can get past the Sooners on Friday night.

Who takes it in this Big 12 Championship elimination bout?

WEEK 13 NCAAF BETTING MATCHUP Oklahoma Sooners at West Virginia Mountaineers Friday, November 23rd– Milan Puskar Stadium – 8:00pm ET Odds: Oklahoma -1.5 (84)

Oklahoma’s Goal? Score and Score More

At some point this season, Sooners coach Lincoln Riley decided that Oklahoma wouldn’t try to improve on defense. That must be the case because the Sooners are awful at stopping teams from scoring. Texas laid down 48. Texas Tech hung 46, Oklahoma State was good for 47, and Kansas (yes, Kansas!) scored 40. Oklahoma’s not even trying to adjust on defense. Instead, Riley and his coaching staff have embraced their true identity, one which says the best chance for the Sooners to win any game is to pile up as many points as humanly possible

Luckily for Riley and Oklahoma fans, one of the best quarterbacks in college football sits under center. Heisman contender Kyler Murray has been unreal when throwing for 3,310 yards and 34 touchdowns to only 6 interceptions. Murray, who will most likely end up in MLB before the NFL, has also rushed for 739 yards and 10 TDs. Anyone who doubts this kid's ability to throw is ignoring that he connects on 70.3% of his passes, boasts the second-highest quarterback rating in the country and leads an Oklahoma team who is roaring in to Week 13 NCAAF betting with 49.5 points scored per game (1st).

With Murray running the offense and Riley embracing the Sooners’ true identity, Oklahoma will continue to have one goal in mind: score.

West Virginia Will Look for a Few Stops

West Virginia seems like the more complete team. Will Grier is currently third in Heisman rankings with a +900 potential, but he also plays on a team that has paid stricter attention to their defense.  The Mountaineers have played some great games on the other side of the ball, holding Kansas to 22, high-scoring Baylor to 14, and TCU to 10.

The problem? West Virginia won’t hold Oklahoma to less than 35. Heck, shooting to hold the Sooners to 42’s probably realistic, but WVU coach Dana Holgorsen knows that if his fellas can get a few stops, Grier will make sure the Mountaineers get the win.

Week 13 NCAAF Betting Analysis - Oklahoma vs. West Virginia

The Sooners opened as a -2.5 favorite before money on West Virginia took the spread down a point. By kickoff, West Virginia might be the favorite. Basically, this game is hovering in pick 'em territory.

The trends favor the Mountaineers. Oklahoma is 2-8 ATS in their last 10 after an SU win, 1-4 versus a team with a winning record, and 2-6 ATS in their last 8 on the road. West Virginia is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 at home and 3-0-1 ATS versus a team with a winning record.

Oklahoma is 4-0 in the last 4, but I put more stock into WVU’s home field advantage than most. The Mountaineers step it up in front of their fans and they haven’t forgotten the 31-59 loss last season when Will Grier didn’t play for them.

This should be a close game, but I’ll back West Virginia to cover even if they end up the chalk. Grier and the home field will make the difference.

Week 13 College Football Betting Free Pick: West Virginia +1.5