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AT&T Byron Nelson odds, preview, and course notes

Profile Picture: Ashley Anderson

May 12th, 2021

With one final tune-up remaining before the PGA Championship, a field of elite golfers will make a pit stop in Texas for the AT&T Byron Nelson at TPC Craig Ranch.

It will be the first time the Tom Weiskopf design has hosted a PGA Tour event. The par-72, 7,468-yard course was previously home to the Nationwide Tour Championship, the final tournament of the Nationwide Tour (now known as the Korn Ferry Tour) in 2008 and 2012.

Jon Rahm and Bryson DeChambeau, ranked No. 3 and No. 4, respectively, in the Official World Golf Ranking, enter as tournament co-favorites (+750) this weekend.

AT&T Byron Nelson 2021

Sun, May 16 2021, 9:00 PM

DeChambeau, Bryson

+750

Rahm, Jon

+750

Spieth, Jordan

+1000

Berger, Daniel

+1600

Matsuyama, Hideki

+1800

Scheffler, Scottie

+1800

Fitzpatrick, Matthew

+2000

Zalatoris, Will

+2000

Koepka, Brooks

+2200

Burns, Sam

+3300

Also among the 156-player field is recent Valero Texas Open winner Jordan Spieth (+1000), AT&T Pebble Beach winner Daniel Berger (+1600), four-time major winner Brooks Koepka (+2200), and Hideki Matsuyama (+1800), who will make his first Tour appearance since his Masters win in early April.

Defending champion and TPC Craig Ranch club member Sung Kang (+25000) and 2018 winner Aaron Wise (+6000) will also tee off on Thursday. Both won this tournament when it was played at Trinity Forest Golf Club.

Sergio Garcia will chase after his third win at the AT&T Byron Nelson. His two prior victories came in 2016 at the TPC Four Seasons Las Colinas, and in 2004, when the tournament was split between two courses — the aforementioned TPC course and the Cottonwood Valley Course at the Four Seasons.

TPC Craig Ranch course notes and relevant statistics

TPC Craig Ranch features 10 par 4s that range from 330 yards to 512, four par 3s between 147 yards and 232, and four par 5s, from 547 yards to 569.

Golfers will confront wide fairways comprised of Zoysia grass and large Bentgrass greens that average 6,800 square feet. Rowlett Creek comes into play on 13 holes, and 83 bunkers are dispersed throughout.

At the 2008 and 2012 Nationwide Tour Championship, which played as a par 71, winning scores were 17-under and 16-under, respectively.

With PGA Tour professionals tackling the same course, as a par 72, expect lower scores, weather permitting. 

Wind is often a factor in this part of Texas and could hamper play on Saturday and Sunday. The forecast also calls for thunderstorms and a 73% chance of rain for the final round on Sunday.

Best bets for AT&T Byron Nelson

With little course history to dissect, let's focus on players with solid iron play who make flurries of birdies and boast an excellent track record on Bentgrass.

Although DeChambeau has endured recent struggles with his putter, he should return to his comfort zone on Bentgrass. The 27-year-old also ranks first on Tour in strokes gained off the tee, fourth in birdie or better percentage, and fifth in par 4 efficiency from 450-500 yards.

While he should contend for the top of the leaderboard this weekend, other players offer better value on the odds board.

One such player is Berger, who last finished 13th at the RBC Heritage in mid-April.

The 28-year-old suffered a rib injury earlier this year but should be back in full form in McKinney. He ranks sixth on Tour in birdie or better percentage, 23rd in strokes gained approaching the green, and 30th in strokes gained off the tee.

A longer shot to consider is Matthew Fitzpatrick (+2000), who posted a top-five finish at the RBC Heritage in his most recent start. The Englishman has finished in the top 10 in all but one of his last six appearances on Tour. The lone exception was a 34th-place finish at the Masters.

Fitzpatrick ranks 18th in strokes gained tee to green, 30th in birdie or better percentage, and is tied for third in par 4 efficiency from 450-500 yards. He has yet to win on the PGA Tour but has a chance to break in a new course in commanding fashion.

How to watch the AT&T Byron Nelson

The winner of the AT&T Byron Nelson will receive $1.458 million of an $8.1 million purse, plus 500 FedEx Cup points.

You can catch the action Thursday and Friday from 3:30-6:30 p.m. ET, and Saturday and Sunday from 1-3 p.m. ET on the Golf Channel. CBS will provide live coverage from 3-6 p.m. ET on Saturday and Sunday. 

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