AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am odds, preview, and course notes

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February 10th, 2021

Following Brooks Koepka’s rise in Phoenix last week, the PGA Tour will head back to California for the 84th edition of the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am.

The fabled tournament, which typically sees celebrities like Bill Murray, Justin Timberlake, and Tom Brady participating in the pro-am, will look a bit different this year, because of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Amateurs are out, as is Monterey Peninsula Country Club. This year’s event will focus solely on a 156-player field of professionals, who will compete across two coastal courses, instead of the traditional three.

On Thursday and Friday, golfers will complete one round at Pebble Beach Golf Links and one at Spyglass Hill, before cuts are made after 36 holes, instead of the customary 54. The remaining field will return to Pebble Beach for the final two rounds on Saturday and Sunday.

Two-time Pebble Beach champion Dustin Johnson opened as the favorite at the event, but he withdrew on Monday, following his win at last week’s Saudi International.

That pushed Patrick Cantlay up the odds board as the new frontrunner (+700), while Daniel Berger (+1200), Paul Casey (+1200), and Will Zalatoris (+1600) are other popular choices to climb the leaderboard.

Odds to win the 2021 Pebble Beach Pro-Am

Patrick Cantlay
Daniel Berger
Paul Casey
Will Zalatoris
Jason Day

Pebble Beach course layout and relevant statistics

Cantlay, Berger, and Casey all own top-15 finishes in prior appearances at Pebble Beach, where course history and performance are closely linked. Since 2006, every Pebble Beach champion owned a top-21 finish in a previous outing.

Jason Day (+1800) and Jordan Spieth (+2000) are two other players who have recently excelled at this multi-course event. In 2017, Spieth won by four strokes at 19-under, while Day tied for second in 2018 and has placed in the top 10 in six of his past eight appearances.

Top contenders also tend to rank highly in strokes gained approaching the green and strokes gained putting.

Both Pebble Beach Golf Links and Spyglass are short, par-72 courses that feature wide fairways and small, sluggish Poa Annua greens. Pebble Beach is the longer of the two at 7,051 yards, while Spyglass (10 yards shorter) is the easier course.   

Weather can significantly affect scores at this tournament, as well. This weekend, temperatures are expected to top out at 55 degrees, with high winds in the forecast for Saturday and Sunday, and rain on Thursday and Saturday.

Best bets at Pebble Beach

Past experience and solid approach play will be all the more important should inclement weather hit California's coast.

That makes Berger an intriguing pick. The 27-year-old Florida native barely missed the cut (at 2-under) last week, but posted two top 10s in January, at the Sony Open and Tournament of Champions. Berger ranked 10th in strokes gained approaching the green in the latter, and 25th in strokes gained putting.

Last season, Berger landed fifth at Pebble Beach. He also finished 10th in 2015 and played the course in 2019, when it hosted the U.S. Open.

Kevin Streelman (+3300) is another player to consider because of his recent course history. Although he hasn’t finished better than 21st on Tour this season, he’ll find his comfort zone at Pebble Beach.

Since 2016, Streelman has finished no worse than 17th, while last season marked his third straight top 10. His best finish occurred in 2020, when he came in second — four strokes behind Nick Taylor, who entered the tournament as a massive longshot.

How to watch the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am

The winner of the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am will receive $1.4 million of a $7.8 million purse and 500 FedEx Cup points.

You can catch all the action Thursday and Friday, 3-6 p.m. ET, and Saturday and Sunday, 1-3 p.m. ET on the Golf Channel. CBS will provide live coverage Saturday, 3-6 p.m. ET, and Sunday, 3-6:30 p.m. ET.