RBC Heritage odds, preview, and course notes

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April 14th, 2021

The quest for a green jacket concluded Sunday, with a stunning win by Hideki Matsuyama at the 2021 Masters. Many of the players who fell short in Augusta will head to the RBC Heritage in Hilton Head, South Carolina, to chase after the tartan sport coat awarded to the winner.

Among the field is defending champion Webb Simpson, the +1000 favorite, World No. 1 Dustin Johnson (+1200), Patrick Cantlay (+1600), Collin Morikawa (+1800), and Will Zalatoris (+2200), who finished second last week in his Masters debut.

2021 RBC Heritage odds

Webb Simpson
Dustin Johnson
Patrick Cantlay
Collin Morikawa
Matthew Fitzpatrick
Tyrrell Hatton

The 24-year-old Zalatoris has been on a tear during the 2020-2021 PGA Tour season, with just one missed cut back in October and six top 10s, including sixth at the U.S. Open.

He may seem like another solid bet at the RBC Heritage, but the mental grind of Augusta will likely catch up to him in Hilton Head.

In the last two decades of this 52-year-old tournament, Matt Kuchar (+4000) is the only player to win at the RBC Heritage a week after finishing in the top 10 at Augusta.

If the trend continues in 2021, Corey Conners (tied for eighth at Augusta) and Cameron Smith (T10) are also in danger of a setback this week.  

RBC Heritage course notes and relevant statistics

After one of the longest courses on tour, Augusta National, the PGA Tour will visit the par-71, 7,121-yard Harbour Town Golf Links, where placement off the tee takes precedence over driving distance.

Tree-lined fairways and multiple dog legs will prevent golfers like Johnson from bombing it with a driver.

Some of the smallest green complexes on tour will also challenge golfers struggling with their short game. Averaging 3,700 square feet in area, Harbour Town's TifEagle Bermuda greens are nearly half the size of the tour average.

This course typically rates higher in scrambling percentage and lower in greens in regulation.

Weather could also shake up the leaderboard at this coastal course, with rain in the forecast every day but Friday, and winds projected to reach 13 mph Thursday afternoon.

Strokes gained approaching the green, scrambling, and fairway percentage are all statistics to factor in for this tournament.

Thirteen of the last 14 winners also ranked inside the top 60 on tour in proximity to the hole, while 11 of the last 14 winners ranked inside the top 60 in scoring average.

Best bets at RBC Heritage

A player to watch this weekend is Paul Casey (+2200). The 43-year-old landed a top 30 at the Masters but posted four straight top 10s prior to his trip to Augusta.

One of those top 10s was at the Players Championship, held at TPC Sawgrass, another Pete Dye design. He also landed fifth at Pebble Beach, where the course's green complexes are small, like Harbour Town's.

Casey ranks 17th on tour in strokes gained approaching the green and 49th in fairway percentage, while he is tied for 23rd in scrambling and 34th in proximity to the hole.

For a longer shot to back for a top 10 finish, look to Russell Henley (+400, top 10 finish). The 32-year-old ranks first in scoring average, fifth in scrambling, sixth in strokes gained approaching the green, eighth in greens in regulation percentage, and is tied for seventh in proximity to the hole.

His best finish at the RBC Heritage came in 2013, when he finished sixth.

How to watch the RBC Heritage

The winner of the RBC Heritage will receive $1.278 million of the $7.1 million purse, 500 FedEx Cup points and the tartan jacket.

You can catch all the action Thursday and Friday, 3-6 p.m. ET, and Saturday and Sunday, 1-3 p.m. ET, on the Golf Channel. CBS will provide live coverage from 3-6 p.m. ET, Saturday and Sunday.