Texas Open odds, preview, and course notes

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March 31st, 2021

Golfers like Rickie Fowler, who are searching for a spot in next week’s Masters, will have their work cut out at this week's Texas Open.

Played on the par 72, 7,494-yard Oaks Course at TPC San Antonio, this 99-year-old tournament features one of the most difficult non-major courses on the PGA Tour and will only grow more treacherous with inclement weather.

World No. 13 Tony Finau headlines the event as the +1000 favorite, while Jordan Spieth (+1100), WGC-Match Play runner-up Scottie Scheffler (+1200), and defending champion Corey Conners (+1600) fill out the top of the odds board.

Last season’s Masters winner, Dustin Johnson, was a late scratch from this event, after he opted to stay home to focus on preparation for Augusta.  

Valero Texas Open odds

Tony Finau
Jordan Spieth
Scottie Scheffler
Corey Conners
Hideki Matsuyama

Texas Open course layout and relevant statistics

High winds tend to derail scores at the Oaks Course, which was designed by Greg Norman in consultation with Sergio Garcia.

Since 2012, only four of 32 rounds played in calm winds, while eight rounds were ravaged by extreme gusts.

The forecast for this weekend calls for winds ranging from 9 to 12 mph, with around a 20% chance of rain on Saturday and Sunday.

Weather aside, players will need to hone their driver in order to navigate the narrow, tree-lined fairways. Bombers often do well at this course, as the past four winners ranked eighth, fourth, ninth, and fourth in strokes gained off the tee.

Solid iron play is important, too, while good Bermuda putters will own an advantage on the course's undulating Bermuda greens.

Since 2010, the Oaks Course has boasted the second-toughest greens to hit in regulation, behind only Riviera, home to the Genesis Invitational.

More than 70 bunkers line the course, while just three water hazards come into play.

Ten par 4s range from 347 to 481 yards, four par 3s span 183 to 241 yards, and the four par 5s measure 567 to 604 yards.

Strokes gained approaching the green, ball striking, and greens in regulation are key statistics to consider.

Also of note, four of the past five champions posted a top 30 finish at this event the year prior to their win, and four of the past six winners earned their first tour victory at the Texas Open.

Best bets for the Texas Open

One player due a win on the PGA Tour is Cameron Tringale (+2200), who finished 13th at the Honda Classic earlier this month.

The 33-year-old Californian ranks in the top 50 on tour in strokes gained approaching the green, strokes gained off the tee, ball striking, and greens in regulation percentage. He also posted a top 20 finish at the Texas Open in 2019.

Another viable contender is Ryan Palmer (+2200), despite back-to-back missed cuts at this event in 2018 and 2019.

The 44-year-old Texan most recently landed 17th at the Players Championship and has posted three top 5s this season, at the Farmers Insurance Open, Tournament of Champions, and Zozo Championship.

Between 2010 and 2017, he snagged four top 10s at the Texas Open, including a fourth-place finish in 2016 and a sixth in 2017.

Lastly, look for a strong finish from 2016 champion and two-time runner-up Charley Hoffman (+3000). After he dealt with back issues earlier in the season, Hoffman has come on strong, with top 10s at Pebble Beach and the Arnold Palmer Invitational, plus a top 20 at the Players.

Hoffman ranks 18th in strokes gained approaching the green, 21st in driving distance, and 31st in strokes gained tee to green.

How to watch the Texas Open

The winner of the Texas Open will receive $1.39 million of a $7.7 million purse and 500 FedEx Cup points. 

You can catch the action Thursday and Friday, from 2-6 p.m. ET, and Saturday and Sunday, from 1-3 p.m. ET, on the Golf Channel. NBC will provide live coverage from 3-6 p.m. ET on Saturday and Sunday.