The best betting props for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
Pebble Beach is like Prince, Madonna, or Elvis. It needs no introduction.
The iconic seaside links course has hosted the U.S. Open six times, and now we head to the wind-swept corner of California for another four days of inspiring golf and stunning views.
Once again, we have a Pro-Am without the "Am" due to the pandemic, and rather than the three courses this event is usually split over, we will have a day at Pebble Beach, a day at Spyglass Hill and then the weekend heads back to Pebble Beach.
This is not a test off the tee for the pros. It’s a short course and the fairways are generous, so you don’t need to be long or necessarily accurate to contend. But you do need to have your irons dialled in and your putter in form – the greens are small and unforgiving so that second shot is key. 12 of the last 14 winners of this tournament ranked inside the top nine for greens hit, and every winner in the last 15 years has been in the top 16 for putting average.
Odds to win the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
Course form and experience counts for plenty and when the wind gets up this can be particularly challenging, but here are four prop bets for the 2021 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am that I hope are up to the test.
Top 20 Finish: Michael Thompson (+300)
Thompson is coming off a missed cut in the Phoenix Open last week, but I’m going to forgive him that performance as he clearly does not enjoy the course – having taken the weekend off there three times in the last five years.
His course form in this competition is equally sketchy at first look. He finished 10th in 2019 and 19th in 2014, but missed the cut in every other year. But on further examination Thompson has played well at the Pebble Beach course, bettering the field average while missing the cut in 2015, 2016, and 2017. His problems were on the Monterey Course, which isn’t played this year.
His current form looks to suit this challenge as Thompson posted top 25 finishes in the Tournament of Champions and the Sony Open before a top 5 finish in the American Express – where he ranked inside the top 10 for greens in regulation. If he warms the putter up, this course could bring the best out of him.
Top Australian Player: Jason Day (+165)
Jason Day has now missed back-to-back cuts on Tour since coming back from the Christmas break, but as with Michael Thompson, I’m in forgiving mood, and Day has his excuses. The Aussie returned to action with a new coach and a mix of new clubs in his bag, and while he looked rusty in the Farmers Insurance Open and the Phoenix Open, I can see it all clicking this weekend.
The main point here is Day LOVES this competition. He has played in it 11 times and finished in the top 10 on seven occasions. In the last six years he has finished in the top 5 in all but one of them – when he finished a solid 11th.
Day is a couple of bad tournaments away from dropping out of the world’s top 50, so a renewed drive at a tournament he excels at is hopefully a winning combo in this prop.
Tournament Trio A: Paul Casey (+225)
This is a red-hot trio, but I was surprised to see Casey the outsider of the three alongside Patrick Cantlay and Daniel Berger. For that reason, Casey presents value as there are question marks with the other pair.
Last time Casey was on the PGA Tour we saw him finish eighth in the American Express, before he jetted off on the European Tour and won in Dubai and posted a 12th place at the Saudi International. The travel may be a factor, but it didn’t affect McIlroy’s game a few weeks prior, and hopefully Casey’s renewed confidence and form can negate the jet lag.
Casey also has some nice course form, finishing eighth in 2018 and second in 2019, so we know that Pebble Beach suits him. You can put a line through his effort last year where he finished 64th and essentially gave up on the final round, shooting 81 when well out of contention.
Berger’s course form is also solid, having posted two top 10 finishes here, but a missed cut last week was striking after some nice form early on this year and that throws up a flag. Cantlay was second in the American Express last month, and while he has shown glimmers of form at Pebble Beach, it’s nowhere near as compelling an argument as Casey’s.
To Make The Cut: Phil Mickelson (-160)
"Phil The Thrill" has missed three of the last six cuts, and in the three he did make he was never inside the top 50 – hardly inspiring form.
But consider this…
Last year "Lefty" missed the cut at the American Express, missed the cut at the Farmers Open, and then went on to finish third at Pebble Beach.
In 2019 he missed the cut at the Phoenix Open and followed it up by winning this event.
Basically, ignore recent form. Mickelson is a five-time winner of this event who has been inside the top three in four of the last five years. He hasn’t missed the cut here since 2008. It’s a lock.