The best betting props for the 2021 AT&T Byron Nelson
The leading players on the PGA Tour may be forgiven for having one eye on next week’s PGA Championship, but this week we head to Texas for the AT&T Byron Nelson. Specifically, we are at TPC Craig Ranch in McKinney, which was rated the No. 1 place to live in America in 2014 for all you pub quiz fans out there.
TPC Craig Ranch has never been used on the PGA Tour before, but we have seen it on the Korn Ferry Tour in 2008 and 2012, so it isn’t quite brand new to the golfing audience. It’s a classic Texas course, so get ready for the winds to pick up and the ball to travel. The fairways are nice and wide, there’s very little rough, and the greens aren’t overly quick – essentially this tournament is set up to be an absolute birdie-fest.
The only real hazard is the Rowlett Creek which weaves its way across the course and makes an appearance on a fair few holes, but we can expect plenty of low scores at the top of the leaderboard.
When looking through the prop bets it’s key to identify players that regularly find greens, have a red-hot putter, know how to shoot a low score, and ideally have some form in Texas. Four of the last five winners have all been huge outsiders, so while finding the winner of this tournament at a new course won’t be easy, hopefully nailing a prop is a simpler proposition.
AT&T Byron Nelson 2021
Sun, May 16 2021, 9:00 PM
Matchbet: Jordan Spieth to beat Matt Fitzpatrick (-150)
The PGA Championship next week might be the main focus for some of the world’s best, but don’t let that put you off some of the game’s biggest names. Jordan Spieth has won 12 PGA Tour events in his career, and a quarter of those were tournaments that came directly before a Major.
His last win was in the Texas Open in April, and Spieth followed it up a week later with a top three finish at Augusta in the Masters. This is his home state, and he has 11 top 10s here, so Texas form is a huge positive, while going low is no problem either. He shot 18-under in the Texas Open last month, and posted a 17-under score when he won the Dean & DeLuca Invitational in 2016, which was also in Texas.
Spieth ranks 10th on Tour for putting average, and his 61 in the third round of the Phoenix Open is the lowest round of anyone on Tour this season. Fitzpatrick is ranked 25th on Tour for putting, and is coming off a top 4 in the RBC Heritage, but Spieth has a clear edge in Texas.
Top Australian: Marc Leishman (+110)
Leishman comes into this event brimming with confidence. He posted a fantastic top 5 finish at the Masters, and then followed it up by winning the Zurich Classic alongside fellow Aussie Cameron Smith. He clearly has a love affection with this event as well, as he has played it 10 times and posted three top 3 finishes.
Texas form is in the book as he matched a Korn Ferry Tour record by winning the WNB Golf Classic by 11 strokes in the state, and he also finished in the top 10 at this course when the Korn Ferry Tour stopped here in 2008.
Going low isn’t a problem as he shot 23-under-par when wining the BMW Championship in 2017, and 26-under-par when he won the CIMB Classic a year later.
His putter has been hot in the last month and if he keeps that form up, he can top the Aussie charts.
Top 20 Finish: Brandt Snedeker (+335)
Another man in a real purple patch of form is Brandt Snedeker. He finished 11th in the Valspar Championship last time out, and before that finished fourth alongside Mitchell in the Zurich Open and was sixth here in Texas for the Texas Open.
His flat-stick is in red hot form, and he ranked 12th for putting average in the Valspar Championship and third for putting average in the Texas Open. He hit 64% of his greens in regulation in both of those tournaments, and can give himself plenty of birdie opportunities here.
Snedeker is just one of 10 players ever in the PGA to shoot a single sub-60 round so there is no doubt he can score low. That 59 came in the opening round of the Wyndham Championship in 2018, which he went on to win with a score of 21-under-par.
To Make the Cut: Matt Kuchar (-200)
Simply put, Matt Kuchar has some of the best putting stats in this field, and his form on the greens should easily be enough to see him playing the weekend, if not challenging for a top 25 finish.
The 42-year-old missed the cut at Augusta in the Masters, but aside from that he finished third in the WGC Matchplay, 12th in the Texas Open, and was 18th in the RBC Heritage.
Coach Chris O’Connell seems to have found Kuchar’s A-game again, and the veteran clearly loves Texas, having posted three top 10s in his last five tournaments in the state.
His putting is the key to his recent success, and if he keeps that up here, he has the quality to rack up some birdies.