The best betting props for the Farmers Insurance Open

Profile Picture: Josh Powell

January 27th, 2021

Length does matter – don’t let anybody tell you it doesn’t. Those that tell you it’s more about what you do with it are merely compensating.

And this couldn’t be truer than on the coast of California at Torrey Pines. The Farmers Insurance Open is split with one round on the North Course and three rounds on the South Course, the latter of which is the longest on tour at 7,765 yards.

Four of the last 10 winners here have ranked in the top two for driving distance, so when picking out props, length does indeed matter.

As does course form. Tiger Woods, Brandt Snedeker, and Jason Day are all multiple winners here, while last year’s winner, Marc Leishman, had finished second twice before coming out on top. Justin Rose won in 2019, and had already finished fourth and eighth here, while winners Ben Crane, Nick Watney, and John Daly all had a top 10 to their name in this tournament before going on to win it.

Additionally, keep an eye on form at the Canadian Open hosted by Glen Abbey. Snedeker and Woods have won both events, while Jon Rahm was second in the Canadian Open the year before he won here. Day and Bubba Watson have both won this event, and finished in the top two in Canada. On the flip-side, Jhonattan Vegas won two Canadian Opens and finished third in his Torrey Pines debut.

With all that info under your belt, here are the four best prop bets for the 2021 Farmers Insurance Open.

Odds to win the 2021 Farmers Insurance Open

Jon Rahm
Rory McIlroy
Xander Schauffele
Tony Finau
Patrick Reed

To make the cut: Bubba Watson (-200)

While not massive odds, the -200 on Bubba Watson to make the cut here is too good to turn down. The big-hitting lefty disappointed at the Masters, but before that had recorded top 10 finishes in the CJ Cup and Zozo Championship. Bubba hasn’t made an appearance on any course since Christmas, but his form here is too good to ignore.

Bubba was fourth here in 2007 and seventh in 2009 before missing the cut in 2010. He bounced back to win the event in 2011, and followed that up by finishing 13th in 2012 and 23rd in 2014. Surprisingly then, considering his apparent love for the course, Bubba dropped it from his schedule. He did come back last year, however, to finish sixth.

No player in this field has more wins on Poa Annua greens than Bubba (who has six), and despite this being his first event of the year, I’m confident that he’ll be comfortable enough to put in a good performance.

Top 20 finish: Charles Howell III (+300)

When it comes to course form look no further than Chucky Three Sticks. Howell has played this event 17 times and never missed the cut. He’s finished in the top 25 12 times, and finished in the top 10 eight times. In the last five years he has made the top 20 every time, and he has top six finishes in 2015, 2017, and 2018.

That’s the kind of course form you love to see.

In four of his last five starts at Torrey Pines he has finished in the top 12 for shots gained putting, so the Poa Annua greens shouldn’t pose too may problems. Howell missed the cut in the American Express last week, but before that opened 2021 with a top 20 finish in the Sony Open. Like Bubba, he’ll feel at home here, and is well worth supporting.

Tournament trio A: Jon Rahm (+140)

Jon Rahm bucked plenty of trends when he won this event on his debut in 2017, but the Spaniard proved that was no fluke by finishing fifth in 2019 and second last year. The Major winner-in-waiting finished off last year by finishing second in the Zozo Championship and seventh in the Masters, before starting 2021 by finishing seventh in the Tournament of Champions.

Rahm pulled out of the American Express after suffering an injury in the gym last week, and although that is a bit of a concern, I fancy him to see off Rory McIlroy and Xander Schauffele in this bet.

Rory has course form and recent form, finishing fifth and third here in the last two years, and coming into this tournament after finishing third in Abu Dhabi last week. But no matter how good his form, that 13,500 km trip can’t be ideal preparation for the Norther Irishman, and jet lag could play a part. Schauffele is a California native, but in five efforts here he has missed the cut four times, and his only other finish was a distant 25th.

Top 20 finish: Brandon Hagy (+800)

Hagy is consistently one of the longest hitters on Tour and currently ranks 20th for driving distance this season. That ticks a big box at Torrey Pines, as does his form at Glen Abbey in the Canadian Open. Hagy’s best PGA Tour finish came in the 2017 renewal of the Canadian Open when he finished fifth, and although his form here is not particularly great (43-CUT-66-CUT) he did shoot a 66 here on the opening day in 2019.

Hagy found himself second half-way through the American Express last week after shooting 64-70 before an average weekend saw him drop to 21st. But that was good enough to show Hagy is in some nice form, and he can boom it off the tee and contend for a top 20 price at tempting odds.