ADVERTISEMENT

Homegolf

The best betting props for the Memorial Tournament

Profile Picture: Josh Powell

June 2nd, 2021

"We stop looking for monsters under our bed when we realize they are inside of us."

That famous quote from The Joker may not have an obvious tie to this week’s Memorial Tournament, but it’s what immediately came to mind when I thought of course designer Jack Nicklaus.

One of golf’s GOATs is more than likely an absolute gent and a credit to the sport, but there’s something inside of him that must enjoy seeing today’s pros suffer! The Muirfield Golf Club in Ohio is one of Jack’s designs, and he is constantly tinkering it to make it a tougher test for the guys on tour.

In the last 12 months, all 18 greens have been dug up and most of them remodelled, new tee boxes have been installed adding another 100 yards to the course, and the par-5 15th hole has been completely redesigned to make it harder.

This is what Nicklaus believes is a true challenge – thick rough, small fast greens, and difficult scoring conditions. There’s a monster in there for sure!

Unsurprisingly then, there are a few keys to performing well in the Memorial. Driving accuracy is going to be more important than driving distance because of how much trouble the rough can put you in, and greens in regulation will be vital. A red-hot short game is the secret to success so scrambling comes to the fore here in order to tame Nicklaus’ beast.

With that in mind here are the four best prop bets for the weekend.

The Memorial Tournament Presented by Nationwide 2021

Sun, June 6 2021, 7:59 PM

Rahm, Jon

+1100

Hovland, Viktor

+1400

Thomas, Justin

+1400

Cantlay, Patrick

+1600

McIlroy, Rory

+1600

Morikawa, Collin

+1600

Schauffele, Xander

+1600

Spieth, Jordan

+1600

DeChambeau, Bryson

+1800

Finau, Tony

+2000

Matchbet: Collin Morikawa to beat Jordan Spieth (-114)

Jordan Spieth’s recent mini-run has been impressive as he followed up his win in the Texas Open in April by finishing third in the Masters, ninth in the AT&T Byron Nelson, 30th in the PGA Championship, and second last week in the Charles Schwab Challenge. That was a tournament he really should’ve won, but a 3-over-par final round allowed Jason Kokrak to snatch victory by two strokes.

And despite Spieth’s good form and tremendous scrambling ability, I’m against him here at a course that will punish him off the tee. Time-and-time again in recent weeks Spieth has found trouble off the tee, and while he gets himself out of more tricky situations than Houdini, ending up in the rough at Muirfield is not pleasant. This season on Tour, Spieth ranks 178th for driving accuracy (hitting just 54% of fairways) and he’s 91st for greens in regulation. He’s 125th for shots gained off the tee, and all those stats are red flags around this course.

Morikawa, on the other hand, has four top 20s in his last four tournaments and won the Workday Charity Open that was played at this course in 2020 – beating Justin Thomas in a play-off. In stark contrast to Spieth, he ranks first for greens in regulation this season, and 13th for driving accuracy. His style of play should see him beat Spieth in a matchbet this week.

Top 40 Finish: Adam Scott (+120)

There are plenty of warning signs that come with a wager on Adam Scott, who is facing an uphill battle to prove he’s still one of the world’s best. He moved up to sixth in the World Rankings before the pandemic hit, but since golf returned he’s struggled to find his mojo and has dropped down to 41st.

However, this prop to get Scott into the top 40 is too good to ignore, despite the fact he hasn’t exactly been accurate off the tee of late.

Since the turn of the year, he has made the cut in eight of his nine tournaments and posted top 20 finishes in the Honda Classic and the Farmers Insurance Open. The big plus is his course form however. Scott has played this event 12 times and finished inside the top 40 on nine occasions, including four top 5 finishes. His iron play when dialled in can be red-hot, and at a course he loves it’s worth backing him to make the top 40 even if he doesn’t challenge those at the very top of the leaderboard.

Top Canadian Player: Corey Conners (-137)

Since missing the cut in the Genesis Open back in February, Conners has hit his stride on Tour, finishing in the top 20 in seven of his 10 tournaments, including eighth in the Masters and 17th in the PGA Championship.

This course looks like it is made for a player like Conners, who ranks 12th on tour for driving accuracy this season and seventh for greens in regulation. He’s fourth for shots gained approaching the green, and although his putting isn't his strong point, the trends suggest that matters less around here than other courses.

Conners has shown he’s getting the hang of Muirfield with his form reading 65th, 39th, and then 22nd in three tournaments here in his career. If he can improve again on that and keep his form off the tee, he should comfortably outperform his fellow Canadians.

Matchbet: Patrick Cantley to beat Bryson DeChambeau (-120)

Cantlay had a horrible run of four missed cuts on the spin in strokeplay events between March and May, but bounced back to some sort of form with a finish of 23rd in the PGA Championship, and there were some very positive signs in that performance.

Cantlay ranked fifth for shots gained approaching the green at Kiawah Island and 11th for shots gained tee to green. This season, he ranks 18th for shots gained around the green, and third for scrambling, which are huge plus points this week. As is his course form, as Cantlay has played five events here, finishing in the top 7 three times, including when he won in 2019. 15 of his 20 rounds around here have been under par.

DeChambeau is also a course winner, having scooped the trophy in 2018, but should be avoided here. Although he hits bombs off the tee, he ranks 172nd on Tour for driving accuracy this season, and last time out in the PGA Championship he was 52nd for greens in regulation and 51st for scrambling. Those numbers will put him in all sorts of trouble this week.

ADVERTISEMENT

ADVERTISEMENT