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The best betting props for the Valspar Championship

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April 28th, 2021

Ophidiophobia is the name given to the fear of snakes, and while I don’t think I have it, I’m certainly not keen to run into any of them. Which is why the thought of a snake pit – a literal hole of snakes – gives me the horrors. Mostly used in mythical legend and fairytales, the thought of getting thrown into a pit of venomous snakes is pretty gruesome, and it’s no surprise that many of the PGA Tour players may be having similar nightmares this week.

The Snake Pit is the name given to the final three holes at the Innisbrook Resort in Florida, home of the Valspar Championship this week. The 16th is the hardest hole on the course statistically with water on the right and trees on the left, and this could make or break a golfer's chances of success. It doesn’t get any easier on the par-3 17th, and the 18th is the third hardest hole on the course.

Overall last time this tournament was played in 2019, those three holes combined for an average of 0.6 over par for the week. Nightmare stuff.

In three of the last four years this course has been the hardest par 71 in non-Majors on Tour, and it would be no surprise to see it give a real test to the pros again this week. When picking out your prop bets, keep in mind that 13 of the 19 course winners to date all ranked 11th or better for greens in regulation, so a red-hot short game is key.

There have been multiple winners here, so course form stands up well, while anyone who has a good record in the Sony Open or the John Deere Classic is worth a look as those courses seem to correlate nicely.

2021 Valspar Championship Odds

GolferOdds
Dustin Johnson
+1000
Justin Thomas
+1000
Corey Connors
+1600
Patrick Reed
+1600
Paul Casey
+2000

Top 20 Finish: Kevin Na (+200)

Talking of Sony Open winners, step forward Kevin Na. John Huston, KJ Choi, Vijay Singh, and Jim Furyk have won both this event and the Sony Open, and I’m hoping Kevin Na can be the fifth to win both. He already has three top 10s here at the Innisbrook Resort, so course form is no concern, and I’m happy to forgive him missing the cut last time in the RBC Heritage after a huge effort to finish 12th at Augusta.

Our Heritage preview on this site highlighted how many players suffer an Augusta hangover, so this is no real concern.

Na has shown flashes of excellence since that win in the Sony Open in January, including the 12th in Augusta and an 11th in the WGC Workday Championship. Now back at a course that suits his style of play, I think a top 20 finish is well within reach.

Top Asian Player: Sungjae Im (-145)

Sungjae Im’s Masters was a disaster – there is no escaping that. But if we can park that missed cut to one side, there are plenty of reasons to like him this week, and he should be easily able to top this prop bet.

First off, he showed his bounceback ability by finishing 13th in the RBC Heritage, ranking 14th in shots gained off the tee and 18th in shots gained approaching the green. That kind of iron play is going to be crucial here.

The key, though, appears to be in Florida. Im has played 10 tournaments here and has five top 10 finishes, including a maiden win in the Honda Classic. He has also played this course once before and finished fourth on debut, which is a huge positive.

Im ranks seventh on Tour this season for shots gained off the tee, and a replica of the ball-striking numbers from two weeks ago should put him in with a great chance of winning this prop bet.

To Make the Cut: Keegan Bradley (-220)

Keegan Bradley is on a nice little run of form, with five top 30 finishes in his last six tournaments. That doesn’t include last week’s pairs event in the Zurich Classic, in which he finished fourth alongside Brendan Steele, and appeared to relish being in the hunt over the weekend.

Bradley ranks 10th on Tour for shots gained tee to green this season, which shows his ball-striking is up to scratch to compete here, and he’s been putting consistently in the last couple of months.

You don’t have to scratch deep beneath the surface to see that the American has from here as well. In his last four visits here, he has been in the top six every time after 18 holes, which shows he knows how to score around these tricky greens.

Bradley is a solid bet to make the cut and play the weekend again.

Tournament Winning Margin: One Stroke Exactly (+250)

Not a prop I usually get involved in, but this course is traditionally so difficult you very rarely get a runaway winner.

In the last 13 tournaments, eight of them have been won by just a single stroke including the last three in a row. Of the other five tournaments, three of them went to a play-off and the other two were won by two shots showing how close this tournament traditionally tends to be.

The wind is going to be a factor and the Snake Pit finish to this course can bring a leader back to the pack incredibly quickly, meaning this is going to stay close through all 72 holes.

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