The best prop bets for the 2022 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
The phrase "horses for courses" was first put in print by author A.E.T Watson in a book entitled Turf in 1891. More than 130 years later, Watson’s words are just as relevant as the PGA Tour heads to California and iconic Pebble Beach.
The AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am has been around for 85 years and the roll of honor is a who’s who of golfing greats. Sam Snead, Jack Nicklaus, Tom Watson, Mark O’Meara, Phil Mickelson, Tiger Woods, Dustin Johnson, and Jordan Spieth are among the winners here at this coastal course.
Picking a winner on an event held over three courses is never easy, but this event lends itself to those with experience here, and course form stands up extraordinarily well. 13 players have won this event more than once, and there’s only ever been one debutant to win – Brett Ogle in 1993.
This event is a horses for courses event without a doubt, and here are the four best betting props as we await the Pebble Beach Sunday showdown.
AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am 2022
Mon, February 7 2022, 12:00 AM
The stars are aligning here. Jordan Spieth won this event in 2017, so course form is clearly not a problem, and the Diaper Dimension is still in full effect. Spieth and wife Annie had their first child in mid-November, and I’m all over the theory that becoming a father increases your performance on the golf course.
Spieth has only played two events since, finishing 21st in the Sentry Tournament of Champions and then missing the cut in the Farmers Insurance Open. Although that most recent piece of form wouldn’t fill you with confidence, I believe the Diaper Dimension is still in play.
Spieth has played this event nine times, and he’s finished 22nd or better in eight of them. He lifted the trophy in 2017 and has come close to following it up, finishing ninth in 2020 and third 12 months ago. I fancy Spieth to be in the mix for a top five finish this week, so getting +110 on him to finish top 20 can’t be ignored.
Justin Rose’s name leaps off the page this week when looking at players who could perform well. The Englishman has chosen to play here rather than head to the Middle East on the European Tour, and that speaks volumes. He has fond memories of the West Coast, having won the 2019 Farmers Insurance Open, and his game is clearly in good shape as he finished sixth in that same event last week.
That means in five of his last eight events Rose has finished in the top 12 as the former World No. 1 tries to put a recent slump behind him.
He finished sixth on his debut in this event in 2018, and while finishing 39th in 2019 doesn’t look great on his CV, he clearly plays this course well. The 2019 US Open was held at Pebble Beach, and Rose finished third after an opening round of 65.
Matt Fitzpatrick’s form at this venue doesn’t inspire confidence and he hasn’t picked up a club since the start of December, while Aaron Rai is making his debut here. Rose shouldn’t be worried in this prop.
Life begins at 40, so here’s hoping James Hahn can rediscover his best past form at Pebble Beach. He’s played seven events since the start of September and missed the cut in five of them, which throws up all kinds of red flags. However, top 30s in the Zozo Championship and Worldwide Technology Championship offer a glimmer of hope.
The reason Hahn is worth backing here lies in some interesting course form. He finished third on his debut here in 2013, and although he has missed the cut in four events since, he’s also posted a couple of top 30 finishes.
That’s interesting because some former winners here who were disregarded before the event – Ted Potter, Vaughn Taylor, DA Points, and Matt Gogel for starters – were all big underdogs who had flashes of course form under their belt.
Hahn has been paying better than recent results suggest, and some good iron play combined with fond memories of Pebble Beach will hopefully inspire him to a top 40 finish.
Another veteran on the course this week is Lucas Glover, and like my other prop bet selections, his course form catches the eye. Glover missed the cut in his first four goes at this event but bounced back to finish 11th in 2019 and seventh in 2021.
And he comes here in some decent form. He finished 35th in the Tournament of Champions – opening with a round of 74 but then posting 69-70-69 – and also finished fifth in the Sony Open.
Most importantly at the Sony, Glover ranked first in the field for shots gained approaching the green, a key metric at Pebble Beach. If his irons are as hot this week it puts him in with a great chance of excelling on this course.
Last time out Glover finished 33rd in the American Express, having been in the top 20 going into the final round. That’s an event he missed the cut for in 2021 and 2020, so he's clearly in solid form.