The best betting props for the Genesis Invitational

Profile Picture: Josh Powell

February 17th, 2021

Rock band Genesis are said to have inspired Queen, Rush, and Van Halen as they sold over 100 million albums worldwide during the last 50 years. And while their studio album Invisible Touch remains their greatest achievement, it’s a delicate touch off the tee that is going to win the Genesis Invitational in California this week.

The Riviera Country Club welcomes a seriously hot field to this tournament, including eight of the world’s top 10 players, and it will take a high-class performance to tame this traditionally tricky course.

The fairways are made up of kikuyu grass which rewards players who find the narrow fairways, but means the rough can be punishing at times. The greens are small and tough to find, so it’s no surprise that 16 of the last 20 winners here have all ranked inside the top 10 for greens in regulation. The last four winners had all ranked inside the top seven for shots gained: off the tee in one of their previous two starts, so driving the ball well recently is crucial.

Course form and experience is key, with 14 of the last 15 winners all playing this event at least five times, and 14 of the last 17 winners already having posted a top 15 at Riviera.

With that in mind, here are the four best prop bets for this weeks’ event. Rock and roll!

2021 Genesis Invitational Odds

Dustin Johnson
Jon Rahm
Rory McIlroy
Justin Thomas
Patrick Cantlay

Top Spaniard: Sergio Garcia (+225)

This is a straight up match bet with Jon Rahm, and although Sergio is a big outsider, I’d much rather side with him at these odds. He ticks all the boxes outlined above in that he has played here 13 times and has five top 15 finishes to his name – including finishing fourth in 2015 and 2012.

Sergio ranked second in shots gained off the tee in the Sentry Tournament of Champions, and then ranked 10th for the same metric last time out in the Sony Open, finishing 11th in the former and a disappointing 47th in Hawaii. But he is striking the ball well and that winning feeling isn’t too rare as he won the Sanderson Farms Championship in October.

Rahm finished in the top 10 here last year but has only played the course twice and that lack of experience may go against him. He ranked outside the top 12 for shots gained off the tee in his last two tournaments which is another negative, and despite five top 15 finishes in a row, Rahm hasn’t looked his imperious best. His wife is expecting their first child in the next 4-6 weeks, which is fantastic news for the couple, but as a new Dad late in 2019 I know how distracting it can be.

With that in mind, I’d rather side with Sergio in this prop.

Top 20 Finish: Luke List (+400)

Luke List had a rotten end to 2020, missing four cuts on the spin, but he has rediscovered a slice of good form in the last month. A top 10 finish in the Farmers Insurance Open was sandwiched in between a solid 21st in the American Express and 30th in the Phoenix Open, where he overcame a poor opening round to card with 67-68-67.

More importantly, he is hitting the ball supremely well. List ranked first in shots gained off the tee in the Farmers Insurance Open, and across the entire season ranks fourth in that metric.

List has played five times here, so course experience is no concern and he finished 15th here in 2019, which is a nice bit of Riviera form.

Top Australian Player: Marc Leishman (+300)

Another man with fine form at Riv is Marc Leishman, who has finished in the top 5 in two tournaments here since 2016. Now, he has also missed two cuts in that time so take that with a pinch of salt, but the Aussie has the course form and experience to top this prop.

Since the turn of the year Leishman has finished 24th in the Tournament of Champions, fourth in the Sony Open, and 18th last time out in the Farmers Insurance in what has been an ultra-consistent run from the world number 33.

Most notably though may be Leishman’s 13th place finish in the Masters at Augusta. That effort on a tough course among the world’s best has some clear comparisons to this week’s tournament, and Leishman is worth a bet to be top Australian.

Tournament Matchbet: Patrick Cantlay to beat Bryson DeChambeau (-125)

Patrick Cantlay is in a real purple patch since winning the Zozo Championship last October. He went on to finish 17th in the Masters and then took six weeks off before returning at the Tournament of Champions, where he finished 13th. He’s followed that up with a second place finish in the American Express and a third place finish in the Pebble Beach Pro-Am last week.

Cantlay missed the cut on his first two appearances here, but he has three top 20s since 2018 including finishing fourth that year – showing again how course experience can help.

Bryson’s incredible ball striking is going to be a huge plus here and he followed up his seventh place finish in the Tournament of Champions by going over to Saudi Arabi on the European Tour and notching a top 20 finish. DeChambeau was fifth here last year on his fourth appearance at Riviera, but the nod goes to Cantlay to continue his fine form.