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The best betting props for the Mayakoba Golf Classic

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December 2nd, 2020

The curtain call for the PGA Tour in 2020 is here, as a few of the sport’s top stars head to Mexico for the final four rounds of the year. Justin Thomas and Brooks Koepka lead the big names making their way to Playa del Carmen for the Mayakoba Golf Classic as we wrap up 2020.

Dustin Johnson has his second green jacket, Bryson DeChambeau turned the golfing world upside down by bulking up and dominating the U.S. Open, while Collin Morikawa became the third-youngest player to win the PGA Championship. But there’s still time to get yourself a Tour win and end the year on a high. The winner’s cheque of $1.2 million definitely isn’t a bad Christmas present.

We can certainly expect a low-scoring affair this weekend, with each of the last six winners carding a final total between 17-under and 21-under. The course itself is unique in that it’s a cocktail of tropical jungle and wind-swept ocean front that uses paspalum grass on the greens, which is rare enough on Tour these days.

Good iron play and solid putting is the key to conquering the Mayakoba Classic. Five of the last six winners ranked among the top 11 for greens in regulation while five of the last six also ranked in the top four for putting average. Keep your eye out for players who can scramble effectively and top the Par 4 scoring stats.

Finally, I’m making a note of anyone who has form on the paspalum greens used at the Puerto Rico Open and the Corales Puntacana Championship. Four winners of this event in the last decade also won the Sony Open, so that’s another pointer when picking out the best props for the week.

Mayakoba Classic 2020 - Winner

Thu, December 3 2020, 12:10 PM

Justin Thomas

+600

Brooks Koepka

+1100

Harris English

+1400

Abraham Ancer

+1600

Tony Finau

+1800

Daniel Berger

+1800

Viktor Hovland

+2000

Russell Henley

+2200

Rickie Fowler

+2500

Corey Conners

+2800

Top 10 finish: Harris English (+500)

It’s been six years since Harris English won a PGA Tour event, so landing on him to claim the prize here obviously comes with plenty of pot holes However, a Top 10 finish isn’t beyond the realms of possibility for a man playing solid golf who has a nice bit of course form to fall back on, so I’m taking a chance.

English has three Top 10s in his last five events, including finishing fourth in the U.S. Open in September and sixth a couple of weeks ago in the RSM Classic after a fantastic round of 62 on the Sunday.

English ranked in the Top 10 for greens in regulation in the RSM Classic, and showed flashes of brilliance in this event 12 months ago, finishing sixth. It could’ve been so much better had it not been for a round of 72 on the Saturday. He also has a Top 5 finish in 2018 in the Corales Puntacana Championship on paspalum greens and three Top 10s in his last seven Sony Open’s, which is some nice correlating form that has me excited for his chances this weekend.

Group C winner: Charles Howell III (+425)

"Chucky Three Sticks" doesn’t make my prop column very often as he rarely threatens the top of the leaderboard, but he is in solid (if unspectacular) form and his course record stands out a mile.

In the last 10 years at the El Cameleon Golf Club, Charles Howell III has eight Top 25 finishes, and three Top 10s, including 2017 and 2018. He’s also got 10 Top 10s in the Sony Open including four Top 3 finishes since 2002.

In recent weeks Howell has ranked in the Top 10 for shots gained putting in three of his last five tournaments. so has plenty of confidence on the dance floor. A combination of a red-hot putter and a course that suits could be all that’s needed for a Chucky resurgence.

The group contains Will Zalatoris, Joaquin Niemann, Billy Horschel, and Carlos Ortiz, and although CH3 is the outside of the five I fancy him to upset the odds.

Top rest of the world player: Abraham Ancer (+400)

A home win for Abraham Ancer would be the perfect way to round off the year, especially off the back of a super debut showing in the Masters last month. The 29-year-old Mexican was in contention chasing Dustin Johnson on the final day, but dropped to 13th after a draining four days of golf.

Now after a break and back on home soil, Ancer can threaten the top of the leaderboard again, after posting two Top 10 finishes in the last three renewals of this event. He also finished 13th in his only Corales Puntacana appearance, which shows he shouldn’t have any problems on the greens.

There’s nothing like playing in your home tournament, and ideally it motivates Ancer rather than heaping too much pressure on his shoulders.

Top European player: Rafael Cabrera Bello (+1400)

The safer bet here is backing Rafa to be the Top Spanish player (-200) and beat Santiago Tarrio in a straight match bet. However, with Christmas around the corner I’m happy to take this prop at a bigger price in the hope that I’m on Santa’s lucky list!

RCB sat third at the half-way mark of the U.S. Open, but dropped out of the Top 20 after a rough weekend and a particularly poor round on Sunday. His bare form won’t inspire too much confidence, but at the RSM Classic last time out he ranked sixth in finding the fairways, and ninth in finding the greens, which is the name of the game here in Mexico.

The Spaniard has some decent form in Mexico and could spring a shock this weekend. Feliz Navidad!

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