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The best betting props for the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play

Profile Picture: Josh Powell

March 24th, 2021

The WGC Match Play has bounced from venue to venue and changed its format over the years, but since 2016 it has found a home in the Austin Country Club in Texas, and a format that guarantees every player at least three matches.

Based on their world rankings, each player is given a seed and split into 16 groups of four. After a round-robin where everyone in the group plays each other, the winner of the group advances to a straight head-to-head knock-out played over the weekend.

It’s a thrilling betting prospect, and the Austin Country Club has plenty of holes that can reward bravery. That alone should set up some dramatic encounters all week.

When it comes to prop bets for the week, I’ve focussed on the four players I think are most likely to be group winners. Match play is a different kettle of fish, and I want to be on side with players that are in good form, have excelled in this format, and ideally have some form in Austin.

WGC Match Play Odds

GolferOdds
Bryson DeChambeau
+1200
Dustin Johnson
+1200
Justin Thomas
+1200
Jon Rahm
+1400
Collin Morikawa
+1800

Group 9 Winner: Paul Casey

Group 9 (Dell Technologies Match Play 2021): Simpson, W / Gooch, T / Casey, P / Hughes, M

Sun, March 28 2021, 8:00 AM

Casey, Paul

+163

Simpson, Webb

+175

Gooch, Talor

+350

Hughes, Mackenzie

+450

There is no better draw than Group 9 for Paul Casey who will face Webb Simpson, Mackenzie Hughes and Taylor Goch.

Casey has played six tournaments this year (PGA Tour and European Tour) and hasn't finished worse than 12th. He has five top 10s and won the Dubai Desert Classic at the end of January. Casey made the final of this event in 2009 and 2010, and won the match play event on the European Tour in Wentworth.

Here in Austin, he topped his group in 2019 and 2017, and only missed out on topping his group in 2018 on a sudden death play-off hole with Kyle Stanley.

Elsewhere in Group 9, Webb Simpson has lost eight of his nine matches at Austin and we last saw him when he missed the cut in the Players Championship two weeks ago. Both Taylor Goch and Mackenzie Hughes are good ball-strikers, but Casey’s match play experience makes him a great bet.

Group 15 Winner: Jordan Spieth

Group 15 (Dell Technologies Match Play 2021): Fitzpatrick, M / Spieth, J / Wolff, M / Conners, C

Sun, March 28 2021, 8:00 AM

Fitzpatrick, Matthew

+200

Spieth, Jordan

+200

Conners, Corey

+250

Wolff, Matthew

+450

Similar to Casey, Jordan Spieth could not have wished for a better group. Spieth topped his group in Austin in 2016, but then for three years could only finish second. That should change this week.

Spieth is a three-time Major winner who is getting back to his imperious best as evidenced by three top-four finishes in his last five starts. His driving is getting back to its best, and his short game over those five tournaments has been excellent.

In Group 15, Matthew Fitzpatrick has solid recent form but has lost eight of his 12 matches in this tournament in Austin, and Matthew Wolff has fitness issues after shooting an 83 and withdrawing from the Workday Championship in late February.

Corey Conners rounds off the group and although he’s in good recent form, he has no experience at the course.

Group 16 Winner: Russell Henley

Group 16 (Dell Technologies Match Play 2021): Sungjae Im / Henley, R / Perez, V / Leishman, M

Sun, March 28 2021, 8:00 AM

Sungjae Im

+170

Henley, Russell

+225

Leishman, Marc

+325

Perez, Victor

+350

Sungjae Im is the favourite for Group 16, and although he hasn’t played this tournament before, he hammered Gary Woodland in his singles match in the 2019 Presidents Cup and won both fourballs. He finished in the top 10 in the Honda Classic last week, and his putting was brilliant.

But Henley is worth a bet. He also had a brilliant showing in the Honda Classic – finishing third – and although his match play record reads 3-5, it is nowhere near that bad. Seven of those eight matches went to the final hole or a playoff, and at Austin in 2018 he beat Matthew Fitzpatrick and only lost to Paul Casey and Kyle Stanley – both formidable match play opponents.

Marc Leishman’s record here reads 4-9 (although he did top his group in 2019), and he has missed his last two cuts on the bounce. Victor Perez is playing confidently, but lacks experience in this environment.

Group 4 Winner: Billy Horschel

Group 4 (Dell Technologies Match Play 2021): Morikawa, C / Poston, J.T. / Horschel, B / Homa, M

Sun, March 28 2021, 8:00 AM

Morikawa, Collin

+150

Horschel, Billy

+225

Homa, Max

+300

Poston, J.T.

+450

Billy Horschel is the only one of the four players in Group 4 who has played at this course before, and hopefully that will put him in good stead. His record doesn’t leap off the page (2-3-1 in two appearances here), but he has four top 25 finishes in his last six tournaments in Texas.

In 2019, Horschel halved a match with Jordan Spieth and then beat Bubba Watson. He would have topped the group had he won his final game, but lost it on the 17th to Kevin Na. That isn’t as bad as the box score reads.

Throw into the mix that he has three top seven finishes in his last eight tournaments and Horschel is in some nice form.

Collin Morikawa was well off the pace in the Players Championship and struggled on the greens, while J.T. Poston has missed the cut in two of his last three tournaments. Max Homa also missed the cut last time out in The Players, and Horschel is worth taking a chance on.

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