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The best prop bets for the 2021 BMW Championship

Profile Picture: Josh Powell

August 25th, 2021

What does $15 million get you these days? Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson bought the XFL last year for $15 million, while Senator Mitt Romney sold his beachfront mansion in California for reportedly the same amount – and it includes a car elevator! $15 million would also get you 40 top of the range Tesla’s or one hell of a Rolex.

These are the thoughts that will be going through the minds of the 70 players left in the FedEx Cup, all playing for a cool bonus of $15 million in a few weeks. The first challenge before caching that cheque is the BMW Championship at Caves Valley Golf Club in Maryland.

This is the first time the PGA Tour has visited Baltimore in almost 60 years, but a little insight into the course tells us that it looks set to be a bomber's paradise. At more than 7,500 yards this par 72 is going to reward those who can go long from the tee box, with at least three of the par 4s within reach.

A red-hot putter is going to be handy at the course, while there’s a suggestion driving accuracy and finding the greens in regulation will pale in significance compared to bombers who can hole putts.

BMW Championship 2021

Sun, August 29 2021, 8:00 PM

Rahm, Jon

+550

Schauffele, Xander

+1400

Thomas, Justin

+1800

DeChambeau, Bryson

+2000

Morikawa, Collin

+2000

Spieth, Jordan

+2000

Cantlay, Patrick

+2200

Finau, Tony

+2200

Johnson, Dustin

+2200

Koepka, Brooks

+2200

Top American Player (1-4): Patrick Cantlay (+300)

Cantlay currently sits fourth in the FedEx Cup rankings so there is plenty of incentive for him to perform well again here – 15 million reasons in fact. The Californian missed the cut in the Open Championship, but that event aside, he’s finished 23rd or better in his last six starts, including winning the Memorial.

This event is nomadic so take this with a pinch of salt, but Cantlay has finished second and 12th in the last two BMW Championships. It’s clearly an event he enjoys, and Caves Valley will hopefully play to his strengths. The greens here at Bentgrass, the same as Muirfield where he won a couple of months ago, and he ranks 13th on Tour for shots gained off the tee.

Cantlay's driving is powerful and consistent, and with a strong FedEx Cup finish he could also claim a place on Team USA at the Ryder Cup.    

Top 30 Finish: Charley Hoffman (+100)

The top 30 in the FedEx Cup standings will qualify to play in the Tour Championship next week, so Hoffman will have an added bit of incentive as he currently sits in 29th.

The 44-year-old has finished in the top 25 in nine of his last 12 tournaments on American soil, including top five finishes at the Charles Schwab Challenge and the Texas Open. Last week he finished 21st in the Northern Trust after a pair of 65s on Friday and Saturday. He finished with a 71, which was a shame as the weather delay seemed to stall his momentum.

Hoffman ranks 27th on Tour for driving distance and 26th for putting average, so there are signs he should play well here this week. A solid four days of ball striking can land this prop.

Top European Player: Paul Casey (+110)

If you’re looking for a player who has been an absolute model of consistency this year, look no further than Englishman Paul Casey. He’s played 18 tournaments in 2021 and finished in the top 10 in more than half of them.

Last week’s finish of 64 was his worst result of the year bar a missed cut at the RBC Heritage, but that is an exception to the rule that Casey is consistently world class.

Casey’s iron play is easier on the eye than his putting, but he’s shown he can be fantastic on the greens when the mood takes him, as it did in the Open Championship a few starts ago. His level of consistency means he should be able to land this prop, despite the fact the leaderboard will be dominated by the Americans.

Matchbet: Dustin Johnson to beat Collin Morikawa (-110)

Both DJ and Morikawa had the weekend off after missing the cut at the Northern Trust last week, and that might not be a bad thing given the finish was delayed for 24 hours due to the storm. They come here slightly fresher than some, but going head-to-head I’m easily siding with DJ.

Johnson’s form is hard to gauge, given in his last four tournaments he has gone eighth, missed the cut, 10th, and missed the cut. It’s a hard puzzle to work out, but what is simply enough to know is that he excels in these high-profile events, and this course should suit him.

DJ ranks eighth in driving distance this year and 18th for putting average. Morikawa is close enough to him in the putting stats (14th), but is outside the top 100 for distance off the tee and that might make life difficult in this bomber’s paradise. No player has won more FedEx Cup tournaments than DJ who has six, and he’s also pocketed more than $25 million in FedEx Cup bonus money. That cash train could keep rolling this weekend.

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