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The best prop bets for the 2021 Shriners Children's Open

Profile Picture: Josh Powell

October 6th, 2021

Head. Feet. Hands. Hips. Arms. Knees. Elbows. Grip the club but don’t hold it too tight. Floppy wrists. Through the ball. Finish the swing.

All those things and more will run through your head before you’ve even hit the ball, and that’s just at the driving range. Imagine what else is buzzing around your brain when you know there is a huge crowd behind you, lots more watching at home, and you’re playing for a share of $7 million.

Golf isn’t easy, well at least not most of the time. Luckily for the pros though, this is one of the easiest weekends they’ll have all year.

Since 2008 TPC Summerlin in Las Vegas has been the home of the Shriners Children’s Open, and in 10 of the 13 years here the tournament has been won by a score of 20-under-par or less. It is an absolute birdie-fest with big open fairways, short manageable rough, and easily navigated bunkers. Last year the average score here was 68.3 – the lowest of any par 71 on the PGA Tour in the last 16 years.

So, it’s an easy weekend for the guys on the course, but naturally a little trickier to find the winner in the betting. Shots gained tee to green is a good indicator here, and naturally anyone who has a proven ability to board the birdie bus and shoot low scores will get the nod.

Shriners Children's Open 2021

Sun, October 10 2021, 10:59 PM

Hovland, Viktor

+1800

Ancer, Abraham

+2000

Burns, Sam

+2000

Koepka, Brooks

+2000

Oosthuizen, Louis

+2000

Simpson, Webb

+2000

Scheffler, Scottie

+2200

Zalatoris, Will

+2200

Conners, Corey

+2500

Matsuyama, Hideki

+2800

Matchbet: Matthew Wolff to beat Erik van Rooyen (-114)

Matthew Wolff has played TPC Summerlin twice and has already taken a shine to it, finishing 18th on debut, and then making the play-off last year.

In the third round last year he almost broke 60 as well, shooting a 61 with putts going close on both the 17th and 18th holes.

After a five-week break at the end of the 2021 season, Wolff returned last week and finished 17th in the Sanderson Farms Championship, shooting a 65 on the Saturday. Erik van Rooyen had a storming finish to the 2021 season, with top 10s in the Northern Trust and BMW Championship, but makes his debut here after more than a month off, so there may be a few cobwebs to blow off.

Don't count on him keeping Wolff from the door.

Top 30 Finish: Scott Piercy (+300)

I had to pick my jaw up off the floor when I saw that Piercy was +300 in the prop for a top 30 finish, because he simply loves this place. He was born in Vegas, so naturally has a strong affiliation with playing here and it shows, because in his last 12 of these events he has finished in the top 30 nine times.

That includes four top 10 finishes in the last decade.

Last year he finished 19th and carded a 65 in round 3 as he shot a total score of 16-under-par – a performance that came off the back of missing the cut in the Safeway Open and then finishing 57th in the Sanderson Farms Championship.

Piercy's form is better this time around. Despite missing the cut in the Sanderson last week, he finished 11th in the Fortinet Championship in September. He’ll have plenty of local support again, and can be counted on to put on another show in Vegas.

Top 40 Finish: Robert Streb (+300)

Another man with course form that looks really strong is Robert Streb, who has played her four times, finishing 10-36-MC-4. He shot four rounds in the 60s in 2019, when finished fourth, and started incredibly strongly with an opening 65-66.

Streb has shown he can score well on courses that suit him before, posting a tally of 19-under-par to become the first two-time winner of the RSM Classic in November last year. Plus, you don’t have to go to far back to find some good recent form, as he finished 16th in the Northern Trust at the end of August.

Streb has gained strokes on the field putting in three of his last four tournaments, and if he can get it going on the greens this week, he can certainly threaten the top 40.

Matchbet: Will Zalatoris to beat Louis Oosthuizen (-110)

It’s not been long since Zalatoris was crowned the PGA Tour’s Rookie of the Year, and not only do I think he’ll beat Oosthuizen this week, but I also think he could get close to winning the whole thing.

Zalatoris got off to a strong start to the season with back-to-back top 15 finishes in the Fortinet Championship and the Sanderson Farms Championship. Now he returns to TPC Summerlin, where last year he shot two rounds of 64 to help him to a finish of fifth while playing under the pressure of trying to earn Tour membership.

Zalatoris’ ball striking is his main strength – he ranked ninth for shots gained tee to green last season – but his putting has often let him down. The good news is that didn’t stop him here 12 months ago, and he’s made significant improvement since, including changing his equipment.

Oosthuizen also made his debut at this course last year, finishing ninth, and has taken a well-deserved break since finishing 14th in the Tour Championship at the start of September. He has finished in the top 10 in six of his last 10 tournaments, but in Vegas I’m willing to roll the dice on Zalatoris.

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