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The best prop bets for the 2022 Farmers Insurance Open

Profile Picture: Josh Powell

January 25th, 2022

The PGA Tour has essentially been a putting contest for the last three weeks, but it’s time to get off the birdie bus as we head to the infamous Torrey Pines Golf Course in San Diego. While the winning score in the last three weeks has been -34, -23, and -23, the majority of players won’t get into double digits under par this weekend, and saving par is a good result.

It’s a far cry from what we saw last week in the American Express, where even Jon Rahm was caught on camera criticizing how easy it was. The Spaniard will be far happier here given this is the scene of his U.S. Open win in 2021.

Torrey Pines has been a stalwart on the PGA Tour, and bettors will be familiar with what it takes to win, especially those of us who were brought up on Tiger Woods PGA Tour 2003 on the PS2. Length off the tee is crucial, dialed-in irons to get on the small greens is a must, and anyone with course experience is going to have an edge.

Here are the best player prop bets for this week in the 2022 Farmers Insurance Open.  

Farmers Insurance Open 2022

Sun, January 30 2022, 12:00 AM

Rahm, Jon

+700

Thomas, Justin

+1200

Schauffele, Xander

+1600

DeChambeau, Bryson

+1800

Hideki Matsuyama

+1800

Johnson, Dustin

+1800

Berger, Daniel

+2000

Sungjae Im

+2200

Burns, Sam

+2500

Finau, Tony

+2500

Top 20 Finish: Tony Finau (+138)

If you’re looking for a man with course form, your first port of call is Tony Finau. The man from Utah finished 24th in his debut in the Farmers Insurance Open, and hasn’t finished lower than that in six events since. Six top 20s in the Farmers Insurance in a row with four top 10s and a runner-up finish last year.

11 of his last 12 rounds in the Farmers at Torrey Pines have been under par and he’s shown he can excel on this course. Admittedly, when the U.S. Open was hosted here last year Finau missed the cut, but the course plays a lot firmer and fast in June than it does in this tournament.

An excellent driver of the ball, Finau hasn’t been suited by the tournaments so far this year, but this is a great opportunity for him to excel on a course he loves. He finished inside the top 20 in the Sentry Tournament of Champions earlier this month, and this is a far more suitable course. Getting +138 on a top 20 finish looks like a steal.

Top American Player (1-5): Xander Schauffele (+240)

I’m usually a huge fan of hometown favorites making good, so it hurt my bank balance to see Schauffele miss four cuts from his first five tournaments here considering he’s San Diego born-and-bred.

However, he put it right last year, shooting a final two round of 68-69 to finish 2nd behind Patrick Reed, a performance he followed up with when Torrey Pines held the US Open later in the year and Schauffele finished 7th.

He took a month off over the holidays but got rid of any cobwebs when he finished 12th in the Tournament of Champions earlier this year, so he comes here fit and firing. He’s a supreme iron player and one of the longest drivers on Tour, so everything should suit him. Hopefully he's buoyed by last year and can prove he's one of the top five Americans while playing in his hometown.

Top Australian Player: Marc Leishman (+163)

A lot like Finau, Leishman is a Torrey Pines specialist, and his record here makes him impossible to ignore. He’s played the Farmers Insurance Open 13 times and peaked when winning it in 2020. He’s made the top 25 54% of the time, and the top 10 38% of the time.

Seventeen of his last 20 rounds in the Farmers have been 72 or less, and he’s one of the hottest putters in the game. He’s quoted as saying that he loves the course, and it’s one of his favorites in the world, which should put some pep in his step back this week.

The Aussie’s form is also solid, finishing 10th in the Tournament of Champions, before following it up by finishing 36th in the Sony Open in Hawaii. There’s no doubt Leishman can throw in a couple of wayward drives, but his approach play and scrambling has often been good enough to overcome that at Torrey Pines.

Top 40 Finish: Keegan Bradley (+120)

Keegan Bradley is another player with good form here, so he’s my final pick in what has become a horses-for-courses props piece. He’s played this event 10 times and finished in the top 25 on six occasions, including fourth in 2017 and fifth in 2018. Getting +120 on him to finish in the top 40 at a course he is clearly suited to, looks too good to be true.

Especially since his first effort back from taking a break was more than encouraging, as he finished 12th in the Sony Open. He ranked first in that event for shots gained tee to green and hit 76% of greens in regulation. That’s the kind of ball striking this course demands and it should fill bettors with confidence as Bradley lines up back in San Diego.

Bradley finished 12th in the Sony Open in 2020 after a break and followed it up by finishing 16th in this event, carding an opening round 66 on the way to a 7-under-par finish. A similar effort here will click this prop bet with ease.

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